000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070316
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 08N98W to 11N105W.
The ITCZ axis continues from 11N105W to 10N117W to 06N133W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
60 nm either side of a line from 12N114W to 07N125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A surface trough extends across northern
waters from 32N115W to 26N110W. Moderate southerly winds are
southeast of the trough to 29N, with strongest winds near Isla
San Luis. A weak cold front will cross the gulf Wednesday. Light
and variable winds will prevail south of 29N through Wednesday,
becoming northwesterly behind the front later in the day. Fresh
northwest flow is expected behind the front on Thursday, except
to locally strong in the central and southern gulf waters.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light winds will become gentle northerly in
nocturnal drainage flow later tonight and late Wednesday night.
High pressure building over southern Mexico behind a strong cold
front Thursday night will induce northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec to rapidly increase to gale force early Friday, then
continue through Saturday night. Max seas will build to 16-18 ft
downstream from the Tehuantepec coast.

Elsewhere, a ridge will meander across the area from 22N120W to
18N103W through Friday. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
forecast south of 20N through the weekend. Seas will gradually
subside to 3-5 ft through Friday morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore flow will resume
Wednesday night and Thursday night, increasing and becoming
strong Friday night and Saturday night.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds with combined seas of 4-6
ft are occurring elsewhere north of 09N, while light to moderate
southwest flow is observed south of 09N. Combined seas of 3-4 ft
in mixed long-period northwest and southwest swell is expected
through Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends southeast from 31N131W to 20N110W. High
pressure center will drift southeast into north central waters
near 29N123W late Wednesday night, and strengthen to block the
eastward advance of an approaching cold front, which will stall
from 32N137W to 31N140W Thursday.

Moderate to locally fresh northwest flow is expected northeast
of the ridge this week. Moderate to fresh trade winds south of
the ridge will weaken overnight and Wednesday, then increase
Thursday night and Friday north of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 7
to 8 ft in mixed northeast winds waves and northwest swell north
of the ITCZ will gradually subside to 5-7 ft by Wednesday night.

$$
Mundell