000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Dec 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 17N101W to 12N103W where scatterometer winds indicate the axis of the monsoon trough begins and extends sw to 08N124W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues westward to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection are observed along the Pacific coast of Colombia from 03N to 09N to the e of 79W, and also within the area bounded from 06N to 13N between 82N and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough, within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N103W to 09N133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Gentle se flow is expected n of 29N early today increasing to a moderate breeze this afternoon to the south of an e to w trough expected to develop along 31N. The next cold front is expected to pass se across the northern gulf waters on Wed, with fresh to locally strong post-frontal flow forecast on Wed night. Light and variable winds are forecast across the gulf waters s of 29N through Wed, then becoming a strong nw breeze behind the cold front. A gentle to moderate n breeze expected w of 105W today as seas continue subside from 5 to 8 ft in nw swell currently observed w of the Baja Peninsula, to mainly across the waters n of 28N by mid week. A low level trough extends from 17N101W to 12N103W with clusters of moderate to locally strong convection occasionally flaring within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. This trough will appear intermittently on the surface analysis, as it shifts se to a position from 17N99W to 11N105W during the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong n surge is expected to begin late Thu afternoon and gradually strengthen to minimal gale force late Thu night, with the gale conditions continuing through sunrise on Sun. Combined seas are expected to build to about 20 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 14.5N95.5W on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds are expected to begin again late Tue night with a strong drainage event expected on Fri night. Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, while light to moderate sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast seaward of 200 nm. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period sw swell are through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extending se from 32N134W to 12N106W will reorientate around a surface high shifting se into the n-central waters near 32N126W on Wed. This high will then block the eastward advance of cold fronts from entering the area this week. Moderate to locally fresh nw to n flow is expected ne of the ridge this week. Fresh ne trades currently s of the ridge are expected to weaken from the n through Tue night, then increase to moderate to locally fresh again across the deep tropics on Wed and Thu. Seas of 7 to 10 ft, in mixing sw and nw swell, currently n of the ITCZ and west of 112W are expected to gradually subside from the n this week. $$ Nelson