000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2145 UTC Sun Dec 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 09N93W to 10N103W to 09N125W. The ITCZ reaches from 09N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 115W and 125W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted from 11N to 13N between 110W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Strong northwest winds and 5 to 7 ft seas currently to the north of 27N will diminish/subside to a fresh breeze later this afternoon and further diminish to a moderate to fresh breeze tonight. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected north of 29N on Monday, with light and variable winds forecast across the Gulf waters south of 29N. The next cold front is expected to pass across the northern gulf on Wednesday, with fresh to locally strong post-frontal flow forecast on Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds persist off Baja California, along with 7 to 9 ft seas in northwest swell. The pressure gradient will gradually slacken through Tuesday allowing for the winds to diminish to a gentle to moderate northerly breeze on Monday, with combined seas in the 4 to 6 ft range, except for higher seas of 7 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of 26N around Guadalupe Island Monday and Tuesday. Farther south, jet dynamics aloft continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Mexico, along a persistent surface trough from 17N101W to 11N103W. The showers and thunderstorms are moving onshore between Petatlan and Acapulco. The trough is forecast to gradually shift east- southeast through the next couple of days while weakening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong gap wind event is expected to begin beyond 48 hours early on Thursday afternoon. Northerly winds across the Gulf will quickly strengthen to minimal gale force late Thursday afternoon, with the gale conditions possibly increasing to strong gale winds through early on Saturday. Along with these winds, seas are forecast to rapidly build to large heights of around 17 to 21 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northeast to east winds are expected to begin again late Tue night. Light to gentle northerly winds, except for light and variable winds to the east of 100W are present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. A gentle to moderate southwest flow is observed to the south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5 to 6 ft in long-period southwest. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure near 36N135W to 18N115W near Clarion Island. The high pressure is support a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds from roughly 10N to 25N west of 125W. A recent altimeter pass confirmed 8 to 10 ft seas, likely due to long period northwest swell lingering over the area. The high will weakens ahead of a deep low pressure system moving from north of Hawaii toward the Pacific Northwest region over the next several days. Trades winds will diminish further through mid week as the high pressure weakens. The northwest swell will likewise decay below 8 ft over most of the area through mid week. Meanwhile scattered showers and thunderstorms persist along to the north of the monsoon trough between 115W and 125W, enhanced in part by jet dynamics aloft. $$ CHRISTENSEN