000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0242 UTC Sun Dec 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough reaches from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09n89w to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N102W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area over the Great Basin and 1006 mb low pressure over northern Mexico delivered winds to minimal gale force over the northern portion of the Gulf of California earlier today. Associated seas were estimated to be 8 to 11 ft over the northern Gulf, north of Tiburon and Angel de la Guarda islands near 29N. These winds have likely started to diminish below gale force, and winds and seas will continue to diminish across the Gulf of California through Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate to fresh north winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft, are currently observed across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, while moderate to west to northwest flow is noted elsewhere west of 105W. The pressure gradient will gradually relax over the next few days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze expected by Monday, as seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell. Dynamics aloft related to the subtropical jet are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 14N to the coast of Mexico between 101W and 105W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong northerly surge is expected to begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale conditions developing late on Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northeast to east winds are expected to begin again late Tue night. Light to gentle northerly winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, while light to moderate southwest flow is observed to the south of the monsoon trough. moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200 nm. Combined seas of 5 to 6 ft in the long-period southwest swell are noted within this area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is north of the area at 37N135W with a ridge extending southeastward to 19N115W. The ridge is supporting fresh trades over much of the area north of 10N and west of 120W. Northwest swell with 8 to 10 ft seas cover this same region as well. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the ridge weakens. Farther south...convergence of trade wind flow along the ITCZ is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis. $$ CHRISTENSEN