000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2148 UTC Sat Dec 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure north of the area over the Great Basin and
1006 mb low pressure over northern Mexico is supporting winds to
minimal gale force over the northern portion of the Gulf of
California. This was verified by a 1746 UTC scatterometer pass.
Seas are estimated to be 8 to 11 ft over the northern Gulf, north
of Tiburon and Angel de la Guarda islands near 29N. Fresh to
strong winds are reaching into the central Gulf with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf this evening
through Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough reaches from 09N84W to 08N93W to 11N99W to
12N120W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues west
to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section for the Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh north winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft,
are currently observed across the Pacific waters west of the Baja
California Peninsula, while moderate to west to northwest flow is
noted elsewhere west of 105W. The pressure gradient will gradually
relax over the next few days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze
expected by Monday, as seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in northwest
swell.
 
Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong northerly surge is expected
to begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale
conditions developing late on Thursday.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northeast
to east winds are expected to begin again late Tue night. 

Light to gentle northerly winds are occurring elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough, while light to moderate southwest flow is
observed to the south of the monsoon trough.  moderate to fresh
southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200 nm. Combined seas of 5
to 6 ft in the long-period southwest swell are noted within
this area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is north of the area at 36N136W
with a ridge extending southeastward to 19N115W. The ridge is
supporting fresh trades over much of the area north of 10N.
Northwest swell with 8 to 10 ft seas cover this same region as
well. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as the ridge
weakens. Farther south...convergence of trade wind flow along the
ITCZ is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60
nm of the ITCZ axis.

$$
CHRISTENSEN