000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Dec 03 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weak cold front is analyzed across the central Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force northwesterly flow currently n of 29N will further increase to minimal gale force, with 8 to 12 ft seas, by sunrise this morning, and continue through mid afternoon today when the pressure gradient will begin to relax. Expect the southern extent of strong to near gale force winds to reach along 26.5N this afternoon. Fresh nw flow expected to the n of 27N at sunrise on Sun, with winds then quickly diminishing on Sun and Sun night with gentle flow forecast across the entire Gulf of California on Mon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends nw off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 06N78W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then turns sw to 08N91W, then nw to 11N100W, then w to 11N123W, then sw to 09N134W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and extends w to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted s of the eastern segment of the monsoon trough within 60 nm of 03.5N77.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N121W to 09N132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section for the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh n winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft, are currently observed across the Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula, while moderate to w to nw flow is noted elsewhere w of 105W. The pressure gradient will gradually relax over the next few days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze expected by Mon, as seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in nw swell. A surface trough extends from 21N106W to 12N106W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is flaring within 120 nm either side of the surface trough. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong n surge is expected to begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale conditions developing late Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds are expected to begin again late Tue night. Light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, while light to moderate sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200 nm. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period sw swell are through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will meander from 32N136W to near 15N110W through Mon, then reorientate around a surface high shifting se into the n-central waters near 32N126W on Wed night. Fresh n to ne flow is expected ne of the ridge through early Sun, then moderate flow is forecast briefly on Sun night before the gradient tightens again on Mon. Fresh to locally strong ne trades are expected sw of the ridge through Sun, then moderate to locally fresh flow is expected early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater in mixing sw and nw swell are expected elsewhere n of the ITCZ west of 110W through the weekend, followed by a subsiding trend during the the early to mid part of next week. $$ Nelson