000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 306 UTC Sat Dec 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong post-frontal high pressure is supporting strong winds across the Gulf of California to the north of 30N this evening, and this will gradually increase to minimal gale force early Saturday with seas building to 8 to 12 ft seas north of 29N. These winds will persist through early Saturday afternoon before diminishing to below gale force Saturday evening as seas subside to 8 to 10 ft through late Saturday night. Expect the southern extent of strong to near gale force winds to reach along 26N on Saturday. As the high pressure weakens, the northwest winds will diminish to fresh intensity to the north of 27N by early Sunday afternoon, with seas lowering to 9 ft. The winds are then forecast to quickly diminish to 10 to 15 kt on Sunday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 11N105W to 09N135W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ reaches further west to 11N132W then to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from 29N112W in the central Gulf of California across Baja California Sur to 26N115W. An earlier scatterometer indicated fresh to strong northwest winds following the cold front. These winds will follow the front southward across the area offshore of the the Baja California peninsula into early Saturday along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt through Sunday with seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft into early next week. A surface trough extends from 21N106W to 18N107W to 12N106W. Weak upper level support has been supporting pulses of scattered moderate convection mainly to the east of this trough toward the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes, and this activity may persist over the next couple of days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, then diminish starting tomorrow morning into early next week. Elsewhere light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere to the north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh southwest flow is noted to the south of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period southwest swell. Little change is forecast through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary strong 1033 mb high pressure system is north of the area at 36N137W with a ridge extending southeastward to toward Clarion Island near 18N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and troughing along southern California and northern Baja California is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds north of 25N and east of 125W, and fresh to strong trade winds from 18N to 22N west of 130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft persist from 10N to 20N west of 120W due to a decaying older northwest swell. A new group of northerly swell with seas 8 to 9 ft is pushing into the waters north of 22N and west of 120W. Seas are reaching as high as 13 ft in the area of strong winds north of 20N and east of 125W. The high pressure north of the area will weaken through early next week, allowing the coverage strong trade winds to contract accordingly. The northerly swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft will continue to propagate into the area, eventually encompassing much of the region north of 10N an west of 120W by late Sunday. This will decay to below 8 ft through Monday across the region except for north of 20N and east of 125W where fresh northerly winds will persist and maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. $$ CHRISTENSEN