000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020956
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strengthening post-frontal high
pressure will support strong winds across the Gulf of California
to the n of 30N by early this afternoon, and gradually increase
to minimal gale force late tonight with 8 to 12 ft seas, and
persist through early Sat afternoon before diminishing to near
gale force. Expect the southern extent of strong to near gale
force winds to reach along 26N on Sat. Fresh nw flow expected to
the n of 27N on Sun afternoon, with winds then quickly
diminishing on Sun night.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends sw off the Pacific coast of Costa
Rica at 09N84W to 08N92W, then turns nw to 11N103W, then sw to
09N116W, then nw to 11N126W, then sw again to 09N132W where
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and extends w to
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted along the monsoon trough within 60 nm either side of a
line from 10N103W to 10N107W, within a 90 nm wide cluster at
14N115.5W, and along the ITCZ within 75 nm either side of a line
from 10N117W to 11N133W.

A surface trough extends from 20N107W through a 1010 mb surface
low at 16N107W to 11N105W. Isolated moderate to strong
convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the of the
surface trough.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted s of the
eastern segment of the monsoon trough within 30 nm either side
of a line from 06N77W to 07N83W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong nw winds with 8 to 12 ft seas are
expected across the waters n of 29N beyond 200 nm through
tonight. Fresh n to ne winds will follow a weak cold front
within 200 nm of the Baja coast late tonight, with 6 to 8 ft
reaching the coast. Fresh nw to n winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas will
spread s elsewhere along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula
on Sat, then subside late in the weekend. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds
are expected through sunrise this morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to locally fresh ene winds are
expected late tonight.  

Light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft,
are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which continues
to meander e to w between 07N and 09N, while moderate to fresh
sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough, with
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period sw swell.
Little change forecast through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge from 32N137W to 15N115W is bridging through a
weakening cold front which has been dropped from the surface
analysis. Strong northerly winds, with 10 to 13 ft seas are
observed ne of the ridge across the waters n of 29N between 120W
and 130W. These strong winds will reach to along 26N tonight
before the gradient begins to relax with the n winds diminishing
to a fresh breeze on Sat. Strong ne trades are expected sw of
the ridge across the tropical waters from 12N to 21N between
135W and 140W today. Seas of 8 ft or greater in mixing sw and nw
swell are expected elsewhere n of the ITCZ west of 110W through
the weekend.

$$ 
Nelson