000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2139 UTC Thu Dec 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 12N106W to 08N110W to 08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 11N125W to 10N140W. A surface trough reaches from 17N to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N107W to 12N106W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the surface trough. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level trough south of the Baja California peninsula has been supporting recurrent pulses of showers and thunderstorms near a 1010 mb low pressure centered at 14N107W. This system remains disorganized, and no tropical development is anticipated. The low pressure, along with more pulses of showers and thunderstorms, will persist in this area for the next 24 to 48 hours before dissipating. Fresh to strong gap winds through into the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this afternoon. Long period northwest swell with wave heights of 7 to 9 ft cover much of the region beyond 200 nm off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Strong northerly winds will push south of 32N through Guadelupe Island off Baja California Norte by late Friday, behind a dissipating frontal boundary. This will be accompanied by another round of northerly swell, reinforcing the decaying longer period northwest swell in the region, with wave heights reaching 8 to 12 ft off Baja California Norte through late Friday. Strong high pressure will build over the Great Basin north of the area behind the front. This will set up enough of a pressure gradient with lower pressure over northwest Mexico to support minimal gale force winds over the far northern portion of the Gulf of California by late Friday, with strong winds pushing through the central Gulf of California by early Saturday. Seas will build as high as 8 to 11 ft over the northern Gulf of California by late Saturday. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sunday as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range continue north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is pushing southeast toward the area, followed by 1036 mb high pressure centered near 38N142W. The tightening pressure gradient related to the advance of the high pressure is resulting in strong northerly winds off the coast of California, expected to move south of 32N starting tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds remain active south of the high pressure from 15N to 22N west of 135W. Long period northwest swell remains in place across the area, to be reinforcing by northerly swell accompanying the approaching cold front. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 110W through the next several days. $$ CHRISTENSEN