000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011648 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1648 UTC Thu Dec 1 2016 updated Discussion section to include low pressure near 16N108W Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N86W to 12N92W to low pressure near 12N98W 1010 mb to 10N112W. The ITCZ extends from 11N112W to 10N112W. ITCZ extends from 10N112W to 10N122W where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 16N122W to 08N123W, and continues at 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 12N between 122W and 127W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 133W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 97W and 99W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 137W. ...DISCUSSION...updated OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California. Seas in the 8 to 11 ft range are present north of 20N W of 114W. Elsewhere over the remainder of the offshore waters off the coast Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh northwest flow is evident. Additional pulses of northwesterly swell will push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will build over the Great Basin of the United States through the weekend. The associated tight pressure gradient is expected to induce strong to near gale force winds over the north and central Gulf of California beginning late Friday night into early Sunday. Minimal gale force winds will be possible across the northern Gulf of California early Saturday afternoon, with seas building quite high for the Gulf into the 10 to 11 ft with these strong winds. Before the strong to near gale force winds take place, fresh to strong northwest winds will begin late Friday morning or early Friday afternoon. The ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec strong northwest winds is forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by early this evening as high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward veering winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico rapidly to the east to southeast. An area of low pressure near 16N108W with pressure of 1010 mb is the remnants of former tropical cyclone OTTO. Latest satellite imagery shows that deep convection in the form of scattered strong type has quickly increased during the past few hours within 150 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant...within 60 nm of the center in the south semicircle and within 90 nm of the center in the northwest quadrant. The low is forecast to move south to near 13N108W by early Saturday, and move little through Sunday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are observed north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1034 mb centered north of the area near 38N137W extends a ridge southeastward to near 20N113W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 131W as was depicted in an overnight Ascat. Combined seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail over this area, with the highest of these seas confined from 14N to 19N west of 138W. The high pressure is forecast to move southeastward over the next 48 hours while remaining strong. Under the influence of the associated pressure gradient, northerly winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 25 kt across the N waters late on Friday. This will also maintain the area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the next 48 hours. Another set of long period northwesterly swell, with a period of 21-22 seconds, will reach the northwest waters on Friday night and propagate southeastward across the forecast waters during the upcoming weekend. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 110W through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. $$ AGUIRRE