000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 UTC Thu Dec 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N98W to a second 1010 mb low pressure near 15N108W. The ITCZ extends from 11N114W to 09N126W to 10N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 98W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 122W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ west of 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California. Seas in the 8-11 ft range are noted N of 20N W of 114W. Elsewhere over the remainder of the offshore waters off the coast Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range, while seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen over most of the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh northwest flow prevails. Additional pulses of northwesterly swell will push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will build over the Great Basin of the United States through the weekend. This will promote strong to near gale force winds over the north and central Gulf of California Friday evening through early Sunday as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across the region. Minimal gale force winds will be possible across the northern Gulf of California early Saturday afternoon, with seas building up to 10-11 ft with these strong winds. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event this morning. A progressive pattern will help winds to veer rapidly over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and keep this gap wind event brief. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb centered north of the area near 38N140W extends a ridge se to near 20N113W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 28N and west of 125W as depicted in the latest ASCAT pass. Combined seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail over this area. The high pressure is forecast to move eastward over the next 48 hours while remaining strong. Under the influence of this system, winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt across the N waters late on Friday. This will also maintain the area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the next 48 hours. Another set of long period northwesterly swell, with a period of 21-22 seconds, will reach the northwest waters on Friday night and propagate southeast across the forecast waters during the upcoming weekend. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected over much of the area north of the ITCZ west of 110W through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. $$ AL