000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Dec 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 1007 mb low pressure near 10N98W to a second 1007 mb low pressure near 15N108W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 12N119W to 10N127W to 11N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm NE quadrant of low near 15N108W. Similar convection is from 08N to 10N between 101W and 105W, from 08N to 11N between 125W and 130W, and from 08N to 10N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California and will reach the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. Seas of 8-11 ft are noted N of 20N W of 115W. Elsewhere over the remainder of the offshore waters off the coast Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range, while seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen over most of the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh northwest flow prevails. Additional pulses of northwesterly swell will push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will build over the Great Basin of the United States through the weekend. This will bring strong to near gale force winds over the north and central Gulf of California Friday evening through early Sunday as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across the region. The latest run of the GFS model indicates minimal gale force winds across the northern Gulf of California early Saturday afternoon, with seas building up to 10-11 ft with these strong winds. At that time, the model also shows a 1036 mb high pressure over the Great Basin. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event early Thursday morning. A progressive pattern will help winds to veer rapidly over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and keep this gap wind event brief. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas less than 8 ft are expected N of 14.5N between 94W and 95W Thursday morning. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late in the afternoon hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb is centered northwest of the area near 38N140W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 27N and west of 128W. Combined seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail over this area. A pair of altimeter passes showed seas up to 13 ft across the NE waters, particularly N of 26N between 120W and 124W. The high pressure is forecast to move eastward over the next 48 hours while remaining strong. Under the influence of this system, winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt across the N waters late on Friday, mainly N of 26N between 121W and 132W while the area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the next 48 hours. Another set of long period NW swell, with a leading edge period of 21-22 seconds, will reach the NW portion on Friday night and propagate SE across the forecast waters during the upcoming weekend. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected over much of the area north of the ITCZ W of 110W through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. November 30, 2016 marks the end of the hurricane season across the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific, and the central Pacific. The eastern Pacific basin produced 20 named storms during 2016, including 10 hurricanes of which 4 became major hurricanes. July through September was the most active three-month period on record for this basin. On the Pacific side of Mexico, Newton made landfall in Baja California as a hurricane while Javier affected the same area as a tropical storm. On the Atlantic side, Daniel and Earl affected Mexico as tropical storms. In addition, Atlantic Hurricane Otto crossed Central America, and moved into the far eastern N Pacific as a tropical storm. $$ GR