000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 12N105W to 08N112W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N112W to 10N123W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 125W and 130W, and from 08N to 10N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell prevails over the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California norte where seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas have subsided below 8 ft just off the coast of Baja California Sur with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere over the remainder of the offshore waters off the coast Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range, while seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted over the Gulf of California where moderate to locally fresh northwest flow prevails. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will build over the Great Basin of the United States through the weekend. This will bring strong to near gale force winds over the north and central Gulf of California Friday night through early Sunday as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across the region. Seas are forecast to build up to 10-11 ft across the north waters by Saturday evening. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event early Thursday morning. A progressive pattern will help winds to veer rapidly over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and keep this gap wind event brief. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas less than 8 ft are expected Thursday morning, diminishing in the afternoon hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is centered northwest of the area near 38N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 29N and west of 125W. Combined seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail over this area. An altimeter pass showed seas up to 13 ft across the NE waters. The high pressure is forecast to move eastward over the 48 hours while remaining strong. Under the influence of this system, winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt across the N waters on Friday, particularly N of 26N between 121W and 130W while the area of fresh to strong trades will persist over the next 48 hours. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the area north of the ITCZ w of 110w through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Today marks the end of the hurricane season across the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific, and the central Pacific. The eastern Pacific basin produced 20 named storms during 2016, including 10 hurricanes of which 4 became major hurricanes. July through September was the most active three-month period on record for this basin. Newton made landfall in Baja California as a hurricane while Javier affected the same area as a tropical storm. On the Atlantic side, Daniel and Earl affected Mexico as tropical storms. In addition, Atlantic Hurricane Otto crossed Central America, and moved into the far eastern N Pacific as a tropical storm. $$ GR