000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2136 UTC Tue Nov 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 10N105W. The ITCZ extends from 09N112W to 10N125W to 07N135W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing within 150 nm north of the ITCZ west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell persists the offshore waters along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico are in the 4 to 7 ft range, with seas of 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will continue to push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. An upper trough off Cabo Corrientes is supporting a surface trough from 18N105W to 10N107W. Scattered thunderstorms were evident earlier along the surface trough, but have recently dissipated. Building high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States is allowing strong winds over the northern Gulf of California this morning through tonight, diminishing thereafter. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds will arrive Friday night through Saturday night as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across the region. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week, with a brief pulse of fresh to strong northerly flow expected Thursday. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail in the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours with nocturnal drainage flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front reaches from Baja California Norte near 29N114W to 25N125W to 30N138W. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh northerly winds behind the front, but this is likely diminishing as high pressure builds eastward to the north of the area and the front dissipates. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a surface trough along the ITCZ near 130W is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the west- central waters. Combined seas of 8 to 12 ft cover the majority of the waters north of the ITCZ with pulses of northwest swell continuing to propagate across the area. A cold front has dropped into the northern waters with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas up to 13 ft behind it. The ridging will gradually weaken toward the end of the week which will decrease areal coverage of the fresh to locally strong trades, while the cold front dissipates. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the area north of the ITCZ through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. $$ CHRISTENSEN