000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291452 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1435 UTC Tue Nov 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1415 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N80W to low pressure near 10N95W to 10N105W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N112W to 10N120W to 07N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 83W and 86W, and also within 60 nm in the east quadrant of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 300 nm northeast of a line from 07N130W to 11N132W to 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell persists the offshore waters along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico are in the 4 to 7 ft range, with seas of 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will continue to push across the area through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Building high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States will increase winds to fresh to strong over the northern and central Gulf of California this morning through tonight, diminishing thereafter. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds will arrive Friday night through Saturday night as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across the region. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week, with a brief pulse of fresh to strong northerly flow expected Thursday. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail in the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 10N. Winds will occasionally pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours with nocturnal drainage flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging extends from 30N138W to 19N114W. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ extending from 15N127W to 07N132W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the west-central waters. Combined seas of 8 to 12 ft cover the majority of the waters north of the ITCZ with pulses of northwest swell continuing to propagate across the area. A cold front has dropped into the northern waters with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas up to 13 ft behind it. The ridging will gradually weaken toward the end of the week which will decrease areal coverage of the fresh to locally strong trades, while the cold front dissipates. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the area north of the ITCZ through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. $$ LEWITSKY