000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N85W to 09N93W to 09N103W. The ITCZ continues from 09N108W to 08N120W to 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of ITCZ between 127W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the Monsoon Trough between 85W and 86W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell persists the offshore waters along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the range of 9 to 11 ft. Higher seas in the range of 10 to 12 ft are west of Baja California Norte. Seas over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico are in the 4-7 ft range, with seas 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The present northwest swell will decay on Tuesday allowing for seas to subside to 8 ft. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the northern portion of the offshore waters on Wednesday building the seas there back up to 9 to 11 ft. A tight pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States will produce fresh to strong N to NW winds over the Gulf of California N of 30N beginning on Tuesday afternoon, These winds will seep south to near 28N by Tuesday evening before diminishing to mainly fresh intensity on Wednesday afternoon and be confined from 24N to 28N by Wednesday night. Seas with these winds are expected to build to 4 to 5 ft. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week. Winds are expected to remain below gale force during this next event, and the duration is expected to be much shorter than the previous event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Seas will gradually subside to 4 to 5 ft by Thursday, then remain near these heights on Friday and Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large high pressure system with pressure of 1029 mb is centered NW of the discussion area near 37N137W. The high was weaken some since 6 hours ago. A ridge extends SE from the high across the northern waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 17N109W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 127W with a smaller area of strong to near gale force winds west of 135W as observed in an Ascat pass from Monday afternoon. Resultant seas are in the 10 to 14 ft range with the highest of these seas located west of 135W. A recent altimeter pass even suggested seas up to 14 ft just west of 140W from 12N to 14N. Model guidance indicates that this area of trades will diminish some through early Wednesday as the high weakens a little more with the passage of a cold front along or just to the north of 32N. The trades then increase again Wednesday afternoon and evening as another large area of high pressure builds southeastward into the area behind the front. Wavewatch model guidance forecast the max seas of 14 ft to subside to a range of 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday. Outside of the aforementioned describe northeast to east wind area, seas will be in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed NE and NW swell through Wednesday. A sharp upper level trough axis is just west of the area. The trough is helping to support an area of scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 137W and 140W. The trough will swing eastward into the far western portion of the area on Tuesday, and lift northeastward late on Tuesday while flattening out. The convection will shift eastward ahead of the trough. $$ AGUIRRE