000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N84W to 09N92W to 10N102W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N107W to 09N120W to 08N130W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm north of ITCZ between 130W and 137W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ west of 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell persists the offshore waters along the western coast of
the Baja California peninsula with seas in the range of 9 to 11
ft. Higher seas in the range of 10 to 12 ft are west of Baja
California Norte. Seas over the remainder of the offshore waters
of Mexico are in the 4-7 ft range, with seas 1-3 ft over the Gulf
of California. The present northwest swell will decay on Tuesday
allowing for seas to subside to 8 ft. Another round of NW swell
will propagate into the northern portion of the offshore waters
on Wednesday building the seas there back up to 9 to 11 ft.

A tight pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure
over the Great Basin of the United States will produce fresh to
strong N to NW winds over the Gulf of California N of 26N on
Tuesday and Wednesday building seas to 4 to 6 ft.

A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week.
Winds are expected to remain below gale force during this next
event, and the duration is expected to be much shorter than the
previous event.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted
north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Seas will gradually
subside to 4-5 ft by Thursday, then remain near these heights on
Friday and Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong and large high pressure system with pressure of 1032 mb
is centered NW of the discussion area near 37N138W. A ridge
extends SE from the high across the northern waters to near the
Revillagigedo Islands at 17N109W. The pressure gradient between
the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
producing a large area of fresh to near gale force winds north of
the ITCZ to near 21N and west of 122W as again observed in the
latest Ascat pass over that portion of the discussion area. Since
these winds have been persistent for several days over quite an
extensive fetch area, the resultant seas are remaining in the
range of 10 to 15 ft in the aforementioned area. A recent
altimeter pass even suggested seas up to 14 ft just west of 140W
from 12N to 14N. Model guidance indicates that the strong to near
gale force force winds will slowly diminish through Wednesday as
the 1032 mb high pressure weakens with the passage of a cold front
along or just to the north of 32N. Wavewatch model guidance 
forecast the the high seas of 10 to 15 ft to subside to a range
of 8 to 11 ft on Wednesday. Outside of the strong to near gale
force wind area, seas will be in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed
NE and NW swell through Wednesday.

$$
AGUIRRE