000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1343 UTC Mon Nov 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N77W to 09N87W to 10N95W to 1010 mb low pres near 09N103W to 08N109W. The ITCZ continues from 08N109W to 09N114W to 09N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 77W and 86W and from 07N to 10N between 94W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 12N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northwest swell continue to dominate the offshore waters along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula. Seas in this area range between 8 and 11 ft west of Baja California Sur and between 10 and 13 feet west of Baja California Norte. Seas over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico are in the 4-7 ft range, with seas 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Continued pulses of NW swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the coastal waters off the Baja California peninsula until mid week, then seas S of 25N will briefly subside below 8 ft before another round of NW swell arrive. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States will generate fresh to strong N to NW winds over the Gulf of California N of 26N on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week. Winds are expected to remain below gale force during this next event, and the duration is expected to be much shorter than the previous event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Seas will gradually subside to 4-5 ft by Thursday, then remain near these heights on Friday and Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is centered NW of the discussion area near 35N142W. A ridge extends SE from the high across the northern waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 17N109W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to near gale winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W as depicted by the latest satellite-derived wind data. The continued long fetch of these winds has resulted in NE swell which are merging with NW swell to produce combined seas as high as 15 ft in this area as evidenced by recent satellite altimeter passes. High pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters through the week, though a cold front passing N of 30N will weaken the high Tuesday through Wednesday night. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds over the western waters north of the ITCZ, though an area of fresh to strong winds will continue. The high will rebuild after the front passes, but will not be as strong as it is currently. In summary, the area of fresh to strong trades will maintain seas above 8 ft over much of the western waters north of the ITCZ for the remainder of the week. $$ cam