000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 UTC Mon Nov 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 09N107W where
low level winds suggest a transition to ITCZ which continues to
09N112W to 08N120W to 08N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection was
noted from 10N to 12N between 130W and 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northwest swell dominates the offshore waters off the western
coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas ranging between 8 and
10 ft west of Baja California Sur and between 10 and 12 feet west
of Baja California Norte. Seas over the remainder of the offshore
waters of Mexico are in the 4-7 ft range, with seas 1-3 ft over
the Gulf of California. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell
will maintain seas above 8 ft over the coastal waters off the Baja
California peninsula for much of the week. 

A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event toward the end of the week.
Winds are expected to remain below gale force with this next
event, and the duration is expected to be much shorter than the
previous event.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted
north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Seas will gradually
subside to 4-5 ft through the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb centered northwest of the area
near 34N144W extends a ridge southeast across the northern waters
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is producing a large area of fresh to near gale winds
north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W as depicted by an
overnight ASCAT pass. The continued long fetch of these winds has
resulted in northeasterly swells which are merging with
northwesterly swells to produce combined seas as high as 15 ft in
this area as depicted by recent altimeter passes. High pressure
will continue to prevail over the northern waters through the
week, though it will weaken slightly. This will loosen the
pressure gradient and diminish winds over the western waters north
of the ITCZ, though a large area of fresh to strong winds will
continue. This large area of fresh to strong trades will maintain
seas above 8 ft over much of the western waters north of the ITCZ
through the week.

$$
AL