000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280347 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to low pressure near 09N104W 1010 mb. The ITCZ continues from 09N104W to 09N113W to 09N122W to 10N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the trough between 104W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The earlier near gale to minimal gale northerly wind conditions over a narrow portion of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to 20 to 25 kt. The pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico will continue to slacken in response to high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico shifting northeastward over the southeast United States through Tuesday. Winds in and near the Gulf are forecast to become south to southwest of gentle to moderate intensity with seas of 4 to 5 ft on Tuesday. A very tight pressure gradient over southern California and the northern Gulf of California will induce strong northwest winds over the extreme northern part of the Gulf north of 29N in just a few hours. These winds are then expected to quickly diminish to 15 to 20 late tonight, and become light to gentle southeast to south on Monday. These winds then become strong northwest to north winds on Tuesday north 29N and west of 113W with seas building to 4 to 5 ft. Outside of the Gulf of California and Tehuantepec regions, northwest swell dominates the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas ranging between 7 and 9 ft west of Baja California Sur and between 8 and 12 feet west of Baja California Norte. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range elsewhere across the Pacific offshore waters and 1 to 3 ft over the central and southern Gulf of California through Tuesday. Continued pulses of NW swell will keep seas above 8 ft in the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Little change is forecast through Tuesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large 1033 mb high pressure center is northwest of the area near 34N145W with a ridge extending southeastward from the high to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 18N111W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ continues to be enhanced by a surface trough that extends from 10N132W to 17N130W. The strong pressure gradient is creating a large swath of fresh to near gale force trade winds to the north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of about 120W. The continued long fetch of these has resulted in seas as high as 15 ft in this area. The area of high pressure will continue to reside over the northern waters through Tuesday. The surface trough will weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days. A cold front passing just to the north of the forecast waters Tuesday and Wednesday will weaken the ridge as well. This will allow for the areal coverage and strength of the trades to significantly decrease beyond 48 hours. $$ AGUIRRE