000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272203
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
associated with a 1021 mb high over eastern Mexico near 20N98W
is allowing for minimal gale force to exist over a very small 
portion across the gulf within 30 nm either side of a line from
16N95W to 14.5N95W with seas of 9 to 12 FT. The tight pressure
gradient will lessen over the next few hours allowing for the gale
force winds to diminish to just below gale strength. The 1021 mb 
high center will weaken, and high pressure over the western Gulf
of Mexico will shift northeastward over the southeast United
States during the couple of days. This will allow for winds over
the SW Gulf of Mexico to veer and further diminish winds funneling
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to low 
pressure near 09N102W 1012 mb to 09N106W. The ITCZ continues from
09N106W to 08N117W to 10N124W to 11N135W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the 
trough between 103W and 105W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

A cold front has passed to the east of the Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong NW to W winds over the Gulf north of 29N
will diminish to 20 kt or less late tonight into Monday morning.

Outside of the Gulf of California and Tehuantepec regions,
northwest swell dominates the offshore waters off the western
coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas ranging between 7
and 9 ft west of Baja California Sur and between 8 and 12 feet W
of Baja California Norte. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 ft range
elsewhere across the Pacific offshore waters and 1 to 3 ft over
the central and southern Gulf of California through Tuesday.
Continued pulses of NW swell will keep seas above 8 ft in the
offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are noted
north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Little change is forecast
through Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1034 mb high pressure center is northwest of the area near
33N145W with a ridge extending southeastward from the high to
near the Revillagigedo Islands at 18N111W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
continues to be enhanced by a surface trough that extends from 
10N132W to 17N130W. The strong pressure gradient is creating a
large swath of fresh to near gale force trade winds to the north
of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W. The continued long fetch of
trade winds is merging with NW swells to produce combined seas as
high as 15 ft in this area, highest west of about 135W. The area
of high pressure will continue to reside over the northern waters
through Tuesday. The surface trough will weaken and shift westward
during the next couple of days. A cold front passing just N of the
forecast waters Tuesday and Wednesday will weaken the ridge as
well. This will allow for the areal coverage and strength of the
trades to significantly decrease by Thursday.

$$
AGUIRRE