000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1304 UTC Sun Nov 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over eastern Mexico and low pressure embedded in the
monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific is still strong
enough to generate gale force winds of 30-35 kt over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas reaching 12-13 ft. The pressure gradient has
begun to lessen as high pressure over eastern Mexico weakens and
starts to shift eastward. Winds are expected to fall below gale
force this afternoon. High pressure over the western Gulf of
Mexico will shift NE over the southeast United States during the
next few days. This will cause winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico
to veer and further diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
wind down late tonight as winds over the area diminish to 20 kt or
less.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N77W to 1011 mb low pres near
08N100W to 08N104W. The ITCZ continues from 08N104W to 1012 mb low
pres near 10N121W to 09N127W to 10N131W. The ITCZ resumes from
11N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm either side of a line from 07N77W to 11N85W, from
06N to 10N between 97W and 103W and from 06N to 10N between 111W
and 116W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

A cold front has passed to the east of the Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong NW to W winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by
Monday morning.

Outside of the Gulf of California and Tehuantepec regions, winds
remain below advisory levels. NW swell dominates the offshore
waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with
seas ranging between 7 and 9 ft W of Baja California Sur and
between 8 and 12 feet W of Baja California Norte. Seas will remain in
the 4-6 ft range elsewhere across the Pacific offshore waters and
1-3 ft over the central and southern Gulf of California through
the middle of this week. Continued pulses of NW swell will keep
seas above 8 ft in the offshore waters off the western coast of
the Baja California peninsula through the end of this week.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range are noted
north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Little change is forecast
through mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1032 mb high pressure remains centered NW of the area near
33N145W. A ridge extends SE from the high to near the
Revillagigedo Islands at 18N111W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
enhanced even further by a surface trough reaching from 10N132W to
15N130W. The strong pressure gradient is creating a large swath of
fresh to near gale trade winds N of the ITCZ to 25N and west of
120W. The continued long fetch of trade winds is producing NE
swells which are merging with NW swells to produce combined seas
as high as 15 ft in this area, highest near 16N140W. The area of
high pressure will continue to reside over the northern waters
through Tuesday. The surface trough will weaken and shift westward
during the next couple of days. A cold front passing just N of the
forecast waters Tuesday and Wednesday will weaken the ridge as
well. This will allow the areal coverage and strength of the
trades to significantly decrease by Thursday.

$$
cam