000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 535 UTC Sun Nov 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and low pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific continues to support gale force winds in the 30-40 kt range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas reaching 13-14 ft. The pressure gradient will weaken today as high pressure over eastern Mexico weakens and starts to shift eastward. The pressure gradient will loosen enough to bring winds below gale force early this afternoon. High pressure will shift over the southeast United States later today, and winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico will veer which will further diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will bring and end to this latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event as winds over the area diminish to 20 kt or less by late tonight into early Monday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N94W to 07N101W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to ITCZ. The ITCZ then extends to 07N113W to 10N120W 09N128W. It then resumes from 10N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 110W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A cold front is moving through the northern Gulf of California with winds reaching near gale force. The front will move east of the area today with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less this afternoon. Outside of the Gulf of California and Tehuantepec regions, winds are below advisory criteria. Northwesterly swell dominates the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 7-9 ft range. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere across the Pacific offshore waters and 1-3 ft over the central and southern Gulf of California. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will keep seas above 8 ft over the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range are noted north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Little change is forecast through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb centered northwest of the area near 33N145W extends a ridge se across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and enhanced by a surface trough from 16N129W to 10N131W, is supporting a large swath of fresh to near gale tradewinds north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 120W. The large fetch and duration of these tradewinds are producing northeasterly swells which are merging with northwesterly swells to produce combined seas reaching near 15 ft over this area. The area of high pressure will continue to prevail over the northern waters through next Thursday. The surface trough will weaken and shift westward early next week. This will bring a slight decrease to the trades, but continue to maintain a large area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ through next Thursday. $$ AL