000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262145
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2112 UTC Sat Nov 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over eastern Mexico and the remnants of Otto,
currently located S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to
support gale force winds in the 30-40 kt range over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas reaching 15-16 ft. The pressure gradient
across the Tehuantepec area is expected to lessen as high pressure
weakens north of the area, and the remnants of Otto dissipates.
This will allow winds to diminish below gale force early on Sun
afternoon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ axis extends from 08N100W to 09N120W to 11N130W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 118W and 130W.
Similar convection is from 15N to 18N between 120W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, northwesterly swell
dominates the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja
California peninsula with seas in the 7-9 ft range as depicted by
the most recent altimeter passes. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
elsewhere over the open Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of
California. Continued pulses of northwesterly swell will keep
seas above 8 ft over the offshore waters off the western coast of
the Baja California peninsula through the middle of next week.

Winds will increase to near gale force in the Gulf of California
north of 29.5N tonight through early Sunday both ahead of and
behind a pre-frontal trough, with winds diminishing by Sunday
afternoon. 
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Otto degenerates into a trough of low pressure and the last advisory
on this system was issued by the National Hurricane Center at
26/2100 UTC. The remnants of Otto are moving toward the west or
260 degrees at 14 kt (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for a day or two.

Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range are noted north
of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest flow and combined
seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 10N. Little change is forecast through
early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving through the north waters and extends from 
30N120W to 24N131W where it begins to dissipate. A 1032 mb high
pressure located near 33N144W follows the front and it is forecast
to remain nearly stationary over the 24 hours. The cold front
has ushered in another set of long period northwesterly swell into
the northwest waters with seas reaching near 13 ft according to a
recent altimeter pass. Fresh to strong winds prevail NW of the
front as depicted by the most recent ASCAT pass. The pressure
gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large swath
of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west
of 130W. Combined seas over this are in the 9-12 ft range in a mix
of northwesterly swell and northeasterly generated wind waves. The
cold front will continue to propagate eastward over the northern
waters over the next couple of days as strong high pressure builds
in its wake. The building high pressure will further tighten the
pressure gradient over the western waters north of the ITCZ with
winds increasing to near gale force over this area later tonight
into Sunday. With a large fetch of strong to near gale trades
combining with long period northwesterly swell, seas will build to
near 15 ft over this area on Sunday.

$$
GR