000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1416 UTC Sat Nov 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 9.0N 94.0W at 26/1500 UTC, moving W or 260 degrees at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Convection associated with Otto is diminished in coverage and sheared to the NW of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is confined to the NW quadrant within 180 nm. Otto is forecast to continue weakening as it moves westward. Please see the latest NHC advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and Tropical Storm Otto just SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues generating gale force winds in the 30-40 kt range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas reaching 16 ft. As high pressure weakens north of the area, Tropical Storm Otto will weaken as it moves west of the area. This will allow the pressure gradient over the Gulf to lessen. Winds will fall below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun afternoon accordingly. The area of high pressure will shift eastward over the southeast United States Sunday. This will set up return flow over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and further diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds and seas will fall below advisory criteria on Sunday night as this gap wind event comes to an end. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 08N98W to 07N105W to 09N117W to 12N130W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 106W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, NW swell dominates the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 7-9 ft range as depicted by the most recent altimeter passes. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open Pacific waters and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Continued pulses of NW swell will maintain seas above 8 ft over the offshore waters off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula through the middle of next week. Winds will become strong in the Gulf of California north of 29N tonight through early Sunday ahead of and behind a pre-frontal trough, with winds diminishing by Sunday afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Otto. Otto has moved west of the forecast waters. Residual seas are decreasing over the southern portions of zone PMZ111 to the S of Guatemala. Outside of the influence of Otto, light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail north of 10N, with moderate to locally fresh southwest winds. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail south of 10N. Little change is forecast through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving through the NW waters with strong 1031 mb high pressure lurking in the wake of the front near 35N145W. The cold front has ushered in another set of long period NW swell into the northwest waters with seas close to 14 ft near 30N131W. Winds W of the front have diminished to 20 kt or less as the front begins to weaken. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large swath of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 127W. Combined seas in this area range from 9-12 ft as NW swell and NE wind waves mix. The cold front will propagate eastward and quickly dissipate over the northern waters over the next couple of days as strong high pressure builds in its wake. The building high pressure will further tighten the pressure gradient over the western waters north of the ITCZ with winds increasing to near gale force over this area later tonight. The long fetch of strong to near gale force trades will combine with long period NW swell tom cause seas to build to near 14 ft in this area by Monday. $$ cam