000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0400 UTC Thu Nov 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Otto in the southwest Caribbean Sea near 11.2N 82.2W at 24/0300 UTC or about 87 nm north-northeast of Limon Costa Rica and about 104 nm east-southeast of Bluefields Nicaragua moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection remains mainly across portions of the SW Caribbean Sea and eastern portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama from 8N to 15N between 82W and 86W. The official forecast tracks Otto across Central America near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by Thursday night into early Friday...emerging into the Pacific Ocean near the Gulf of Papagayo on Friday. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop this evening across the Gulf of Tehuantepec before reaching gale force by late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens due to the strengthening of the high pressure across eastern Mexico. This event is expected to persist through the next 48 hours with the strongest winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours, and seas building to up to 14 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N85W to 06N94W. ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 08N110W to 11N130W. Surface trough extends from 13N132W to 10N133W. ITCZ resumes from 10N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 9N to 16N between 116W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The high pressure across the U.S. Rockies and a frontal boundary just north of the area will cause winds to increase to fresh to strong across the Gulf of California waters mainly north of 30N by early Thursday, then gradually diminishing on Friday as the pressure gradient weakens. Seas will build to 6 to 8 ft in this area. These winds are expected to seep through the northern passages of the peninsula into the Pacific waters west of the peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds will persist west of the peninsula across the open Pacific waters. A tight pressure gradient will setup offshore of southern California tonight into Thursday which will increase northerly winds to fresh to strong just to the north of the discussion area. These winds will send a fresh northerly swell of 7 to 9 ft into our area. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft through Friday as a new set of northwest swell arrives behind a weakening frontal boundary. This swell will decay on Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday, moving across the area during the remainder of the weekend. Northwest swells will arrive with this front, building seas to 9 to 13 ft on Sunday. Southern winds will veer and increase in speed in the moderate range as the front approaches in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo...light to gentle variable winds prevail across the area. Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on tropical cyclone Otto which is forecast to track across the region. Mariners planning to transit through the Panama Canal are also urged to monitor Otto...which is currently in the southwest Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere...gentle to moderate winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail on either side of the Monsoon Trough. Little change is forecast through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge extends across the waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient generated by this feature combined with lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades prevail. These winds combined with mixed swell are producing combined seas of 8 to 12 ft. Little change in this pattern is expected through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER