000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1415 UTC Wed Nov 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otto in the southwest Caribbean Sea near 11.1N 80.7W at 23/1500 UTC or about 150 nm ENE of Limon Costa Rica and about 190 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection remains mainly across portions of the SW Caribbean Sea and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 10N to 16N between 79W and 84W. The official forecast tracks Otto across Central America near or along the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thursday and Thursday night...emerging into the Pacific Ocean near the Gulf of Papagayo late Thursday night into Friday. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds will diminish briefly this afternoon...but will then increase back to fresh to strong levels this evening before reaching gale force late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens due to strengthening high pressure across eastern Mexico. The gale force event is expected to persist through Saturday night with the strongest winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to up to 14 ft during the period of strongest winds. Fresh to strong northerly flow will then gradually diminish beginning Sunday morning through Sunday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 09N85W to 06N90W to 06N95W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N95W to 07N110W to low pressure near 10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 114W and 129W... and from 10N to 15N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure building across the U.S. Rockies will cause winds to increase to fresh to strong out of the N-NW across the Gulf of California W of 112W early Thursday...gradually diminishing by Friday as the pressure gradient weakens. These winds are expected to seep through the northern passages of the peninsula into the Pacific waters W of the peninsula Thursday and Thursday night. Seas will build to up to 7 to 9 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise...moderate to fresh northerly winds will persist west of the peninsula across the open Pacific waters. Northwest swell to the west of Baja California is decaying with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft...the highest to the S near the Revillagigedo Islands. A tight pressure gradient will setup offshore of southern California tonight into Thursday which will increase northerly winds to fresh to strong just to the north of the discussion area. These winds will send fresh northerly swell of 7 to 9 ft into the area through this evening. Seas will continue to build to 8 to 12 ft Thursday through Friday as a new set of NW swell arrives behind a remnant frontal boundary. That swell will then decay Friday into Friday night. Yet another...and stronger cold front will approach from the NW on Saturday...moving across the area during the remainder of the weekend. NW swells will arrive with this front...building seas to 9 to 13 ft Sunday and Sunday night. Meanwhile...SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong Saturday night...then will become W-NW Sunday night...maintaining moderate to fresh levels. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo...moderate to fresh drainage flow will diminish this afternoon. Otherwise...see the special features section above for information on tropical cyclone Otto forecast to track across the region. Mariners planning to transit through the Panama Canal are also urged to monitor Otto...currently in the SW Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere...gentle to moderate winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Little change is forecast through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A decaying cold front is analyzed from 31N130W to 29N140w with a new set of NW swell behind it up to 8 to 13 ft. Relatively strong ridging is punching across this boundary and extending across the waters north of the ITCZ from NW to SE. This ridging combined with surface troughing and a 1010 mb low pressure embedded in the ITCZ near 10N131W is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the west-central waters where fresh to strong trades prevail. These winds combined with decaying NW swell are producing combined seas of 8 to 11 ft. Little change in this pattern and the marine conditions is expected through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend with the trades persisting and multiple reinforcing sets of NW swell propagating into the area. $$ HUFFMAN