000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 22 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Otto is centered in the sw Caribbean Sea near 10.9N 79.1W at 0300 UTC and is drifting s. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The NHC forecast calls for Otto to move w along the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica at hurricane strength of 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, emerging into the northeast Pacific near the Gulf of Papagayo as a minimal tropical storm on Fri, and weaken to a remnant low at 11.3N 87.2W late Fri. Although tropical storm force or greater winds are expected only out to 60 nm from the center, a large area of rain with embedded squalls extend outward to about 240 nm. Heavy rainfall is likely across Nicaragua, Costa Rica and nw Panama during this time period. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends sw off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N83W to 06N90W then turns w to 07N95W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and extends w to 06N102W, then turns nw to 08N108W, then continues w through an embedded 1010 mb surface low pressure at 08.5N120W to another 1010 mb surface low pressure at 09.5N132W, then turns sw to beyond 06N140W. A trough extends n from the surface low at 08.5N120W to 16N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the low, and within 120 nm either side of A LINE FROM 09N114W to 13N119W. A trough extends n from the surface low at 09.5N132W to 18N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 12N128W to 08N138W. Otherwise, only scattered moderate convection is noted along the far e portion of the monsoon trough within 30 nm either side of a line from 08N82W to 10N85W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Currently there are near gale force winds of 20 to 30 kt with maximum seas of 11 ft just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The n winds may briefly diminish to 20 kt on Tue afternoon, but quickly increase to 20 to 25 kt on Tue evening, and gradually strengthen Tue night and Wed to minimal gale force on again on Wed night. A weakening cold front is sweeping e across the waters n of 24N tonight with the nw post-frontal flow increasing to a moderate to locally fresh breeze that will spread se across all waters w of Baja on Tue. The associated large nw swell, in the form of 7 to 11 ft seas. will subside from the n throughout the day on Tue to less than 8 ft by midday on Wed. The cold front has moved over the far northern Gulf of California. Moderate nw winds are noted nw of the front. Moderate to locally fresh conditions will spread se across the entire Gulf of California on Tue. Expect strong nw flow to develop across the northern gulf waters around sunrise on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: a swath of strong ne winds extend sw from the Gulf of Papagayo reaching as far sw as 08N90W on Tue morning, with seas building to about 9 ft downstream near 09N88W. The winds will diminish to 20 kt or less on Tue evening through late Thu night when strong w to nw winds will develop in association with the remnant low of Otto. See special features paragraph above. Gentle to locally moderate n winds, and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which continues to meander e to w between 07N and 09N, while moderate to fresh sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft in the long-period sw swell. Little change forecast through early next week. Mariners planning to transit through the Panama Canal are urged to monitor tropical cyclone Otto in the sw Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is dissipating from 25N118W to 22N125W. The associated post frontal high pressure is supporting strong ne trades across the tropics to the n of the ITCZ, with large nw swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas elsewhere n of the ITCZ and w of 110W. Another cold front will enter the far nw waters on Tue, but wash out along 26N on Wed night. However, strengthening post-frontal high pressure will reinforce the nw swell with seas to 12 ft propagating se across the area this week, with strong ne trades continuing across the tropical waters w of 125W. $$ Nelson