000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 19 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gale force winds of 30
to 40 kt early tonight should increase to 30 to 45 kt late
tonight with seas building to about 23 ft downstream of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec near 14N96W late tonight. Minimal storm force
conditions winds are still a possibility, although the array of
model guidance still indicates a 45 kt maximum near the surface.
High profile vessels should expect storm force winds at 30
meters tonight. Gale conditions will end on Mon morning with
near gale force continuing through sunrise on Tue before
diminishing. The next gale event will occur late Wed night.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends sw off the Pacific coast of Costa
Rica at 09N84W to 08N87W, then wiggles wnw to 10N118W where
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and continues nw
through an embedded 1010 mb surface low at 10N118W. The ITCZ
extends sw from the low to 08N131W, then turns nw to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N84W to
08.5N91W to 09N100W, within 60 nm either side of a line from
08N108W to 09N119W, and within 75 nm either side of a line 
from 12N108W to 14N123W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section for a strong gale warning in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Light to gentle n winds with combined seas of 6 to 9 ft are
observed w of the Baja Peninsula. Large nw swell in the form of
7 to 9 ft seas will reach 30N120W on Sun morning, reach the n
coast of the Baja Peninsula on Sun evening, then spread se
across all the offshore waters w of the Baja Peninsula on Mon
night, then subside from the n to less than 8 ft on Wed morning.

Light to moderate n winds will continue across the entire Gulf
of California through this evening, gradually clock to the s
across the northern gulf waters on Sun morning, then gradually
increase to fresh to strong s to sw flow ahead of a cold front
on Sun evening with seas building to 6 ft in the areas of
longest fetch. The strong winds will clock to the nw behind the
front on Mon morning and quickly diminish to moderate to a
locally fresh breeze with these conditions spreading se across
the entire Gulf of California on Tue and Wed, before diminishing
on Wed night into Thu.
   
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: fresh to locally strong n to ne winds will
develop across and just w of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight as a
tropical low pressure in the SW Caribbean strengthens. A swath
of strong nne winds are expected again on Sun and Mon nights.
Guidance is hinting a narrow and brief pulse of strong nne winds
through the Gulf of Fonseca on Sun night.

Gentle to locally moderate n winds and combined seas of 3 to 6
ft are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which
continues to meander e to w along between 08N and 10N, while
moderate to fresh sw flow is observed s of the monsoon trough,
with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period sw swell. Little
change forecast through early next week.  Mariners planning to
transit through the Panama Canal are urged to monitor the broad
area of low pressure in the Sw Caribbean that has the potential
to become a tropical cyclone. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front along 32N125W to 23N140W will reach from 32N121W to
23N140W on Sun, and weaken as it crosses the northern Baja
Peninsula on Sun night into Mon. Large nw swell will follow the
front with seas of 8 of 16 ft initially with the highest seas
n of 31N, but subsiding to 7 to 11 ft by the time they reach the
northern Baja Peninsula on Sun night. The post frontal high
pressure will result in strong ne trades across the tropics n of
the ITCZ and w of 125W through the middle of next week. 
      
$$
Nelson