000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 19 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The current 20 to 30 kt northerly surge will quickly increase to minimal gale force around midnight. Further strengthening will occur on Sat with strong gale conditions of 40 to 45 kt expected across a large swath on Sat evening with seas building to 21 ft near 14N95.5W. Minimal storm force conditions winds are still a possibility, although current guidance still indicates a 45 kt maximum near the surface. High profile vessels should expect storm force winds at 30 meters on Sat night. Gale conditions will end on Mon morning with near gale force continuing through sunrise on Tue before diminishing. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends w off the Pacific coast of northern Costa Rica at 10N85.5W to 10N120W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and continues sw to 14N133W then turns nw to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm of 11N92W, within 120 nm of line from 09N95W to 09N104W to 13N110W, from 05.5N to 13.5N between 110W and 123W, and within 90 nm either side of a line from 13N130W to 14N133W to 12N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section for a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant circulation of former tropical cyclone Tina is still winding down near 19N115W and is estimated at 1011 mb. Light to gentle ne winds with combined seas of 7 to 10 ft are observed n of 19N w of 111W. These seas will subside to 4 to 6 ft forecast across the Pacific within 250 nm of the Baja Peninsula by late Sat. Large nw swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas will reach 30N120W on Sun morning, reach the n coast of the Baja Peninsula late Sun building 8 to 12 ft, extend s across all the offshore waters w of Baja on Mon night, then subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. Moderate to locally fresh nw winds across the entire Gulf of California will diminish to light to moderate on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to locally fresh n to ne winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. The cyclonic circulation associated with a broad area of low pressure in the sw Caribbean is expected to produce a strong nocturnal n to ne surge across the waters just beyond the Gulf of Papagayo late on Sat, Sun and Mon nights. Light to gentle n winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which continues to meander e to w along about 09N, while moderate to locally fresh sw flow is observed s of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft primarily in long-period sw swell. Little change forecast through the weekend. The conditions along the Pacific coast of Central America surrounding the Gulf of Papagayo early next week are dependent on the strength and position of the the broad low pressure in the SW Caribbean that has the potential to become a tropical cyclone. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front along 32N131W to 25N140W will reach from 32N125W to 22N140W on Sat, from 32N121W to 22N130W on Sun, and reach the northern Baja Peninsula on Sun. Another round of large nw swell will follow the front with seas of 8 of 16 ft initially, but subsiding to 7 to 11 ft by the time they reach the northern Baja Peninsula on Sun night. $$ Nelson