000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1414 UTC Thu Nov 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Wind have veered over the Gulf of Mexico and winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec have decreased. Minimal gale force winds will diminish to below gale force today. A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico and help for another gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. This will be a stronger event with winds reaching 45 kt, and perhaps even storm force, over the Gulf of Tehunatepec Saturday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 07N98W to 09N114W to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 07N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 107W and 114W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event expected this weekend. Outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds with seas reaching near 14 ft prevail over the open Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California Norte. Strong northerly winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California north of 30N. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range off the coast of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere winds and seas are below advisory criteria. High pressure over the northern waters that is helping for the strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte will weaken. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below 25 kt over this area late tonight. The northwesterly swell will spread southward while subsiding over the next couple of days. By Saturday, seas associated to this swell will subside below 8 ft. Another northwesterly swell will move into the northern waters off the coast of Baja California Sunday with seas in the 8-10 ft range spreading over the waters off the coast of Baja California. Winds over the Gulf of California will diminish below 25 kt later today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo late tonight into early Saturday morning. A cold front shifting across the Western Caribbean will help to increase gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo and Fonseca Sunday night. Elsewhere, light to gentle northwest to north winds and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh southwest flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb centered north of the area near 35N132W extends a ridge southeast to near 23N114W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure on the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ. Decaying northwesterly swell prevails over the forecast waters northwest of a line from 30N116W to 23N114W to 10N140W with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Seas will continue to subside over the next couple of days and are expected to fall below 8 ft by Saturday afternoon. A cold front moving into the northwest waters early Friday morning will help usher in another set of northwesterly swell into this area. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 15 ft Saturday night. $$ AL