000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 16 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: minimal gale force n to ne
winds will continue through maximum drainage tonight with seas
building to about 13 ft mainly downstream of the gulf waters
near 14.5N95.5W. Expect the n winds to diminish throughout Thu
leaving a narrow swath of 20 to 25 kt winds from sunset Thu
through sunrise Fri. Only moderate to fresh n winds forecast
from late Fri morning through late Fri afternoon when peak
heating will produce another 20 to 25 kt surge around sunset,
with the winds quickly increasing throughout Fri night behind a
strong Gulf of Mexico cold front with the flow reaching minimal
gale force again late Fri night. Strong gale conditions of 40 to
45 kt are expected across a large swath late Sat night with
minimal storm force conditions winds a possibility although
current guidance indicates a 45 kt maximum. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends wsw off the Pacific coast of northern
Costa Rica at 10.5N86W to 08N97W, then turns slightly wnw to
10N110W, then sw to 09N116W where scatterometer winds indicate
an ITCZ forms and continues w to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted s of the monsoon trough within 120
nm either side of a line from from 07N79W to 09N84W. Similar
convection is observed n of the ITCZ within 120 nm either side
of a line from 16.5N127W to 10N137W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted in the area bounded by 06N to 16N between
90W and 113W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section for a gale warning in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The remnant circulation of former tropical cyclone
Tina is winding down near 19N113W and is estimated at 1011 mb.

Fresh to strong nw winds with combined seas of 8 to 14 ft are
observed n of 29.5N w of Baja. These strong winds will diminish
to 20 kt or less on Thu with the resultant large nw swell, in
the form of 7 to 11 ft seas, propagating s across the waters w
of the entire Baja Peninsula through Fri, and then quickly
subsiding Fri night with seas of 4 to 6 ft forecast by late Sat. 

Light and variable winds are observed across the Gulf of
California s of 29.5N with moderate southerly winds to the n of
29.5N. The southerly winds across the northern waters will clock
to the sw and increase to 15 to 25 kt along 30N late tonight
ahead of a cold front, with strong to near gale force northerly
winds expected briefly in the wake of the front on Thu morning.
Expect moderate nw to n winds across the entire Gulf of
California by Fri morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to locally fresh ne winds are
expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo late
each night through sunrise each morning for the next several
days. The cyclonic circulation associated with a broad area of
low pressure developing in the sw Caribbean may result in s
strong nocturnal ne flow across through the Gulf of Papagayo as
early as Sun morning and developing again late Sun and mon
nights. 

Light to gentle nw to n winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 ft are
occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which is meandering
e to w along about 09N, while moderate to fresh sw flow is
observed s of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7
ft primarily in long-period sw swell. Little change forecast
through the upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface high is centered n of the area near 36N139W. NW swell
continues to propagate se with seas of 8 to 12 ft w of a line
from 32N117W to 11N40W. The southern extent of seas 8 ft or
greater will reach from the central Baja Peninsula to 13N140W on
Thu night before beginning to subside. In the meantime, the
pressure gradient between this high and the relatively lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong ne to e trade winds north of the ITCZ. The high will
shift e allowing a cold front to move into the far nw waters
late Thu night accompanied by a fresh to strong sw to w to nw
wind shift n of 31N, and a 15 to 20 kt wind shift along the
front elsewhere n of 28N. Another round of large nw swell will
follow the front with seas of 8 of 16 ft. This second round of
nw swell will reach the northern Baja Peninsula on Sun evening.
      
$$
Nelson