000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 16 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: minimal gale force northerly winds will continue tonight with seas building to about 14 ft mainly downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N95W. The minimal gale conditions are expected to continue through maximum drainage occurring around sunrise on Wed, then minimal gale conditions will develop again late Wed afternoon and evening. Winds should gradually diminish throughout Thu and Thu night with winds at 20 kt or less on Fri, then increasing again to 20 to 25 kt on Fri evening. Another cold front will enter the nw Gulf of Mexico on Fri night resulting in gale conditions developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec around sunrise on Sat. Strong gale conditions of 40 to 45 kt are expected across a large swath late Sat night with minimal storm force conditions winds a possibility. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Pacific coast of northern Costa Rica near 11N86W to 11N88W to 10N97W to 09N115W to 11N121W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and continues nw through an embedded 1010 mb surface low at 13N133W, then turns sw to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed s of the monsoon trough within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N79W to 09N84W, and within 60 nm of 16N114W, and along the far western portion of the monsoon trough within 90 nm either side of a line from 16N130W to beyond 10N140W. Isolated clusters of moderate convection is observed within the area from 06N to 15N between 90W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section for a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remnant circulation of former tropical cyclone Tina is centered near 19N111W and is estimated at 1012 mb. Fresh n to nw winds and combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed within 150 nm nw through n of the center. This circulation will continue to spin down as it drifts westward over the next couple of days. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with combined seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail over the open Pacific waters off the coast of Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California. High pressure is strengthening north of the area and will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja California Norte tonight with fresh nw winds expected early Wed, and strong to near gale nw winds on Wed night. The associated nw swell will build seas to 11 to 15 ft n of 28N early Thu. Then the gradient will quickly relax throughout Thu with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. Combined seas of 7 to 10 ft will spread s across the waters w of the Baja Peninsula through Fri night before beginning to subside. Light to gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of California will become light s to sw winds across the gulf waters n of 29N late tonight, then gradually increase to 15 to 20 kt along 30N late Wed, and 20 to 25 kt late Wed night ahead of a cold front, with strong n winds briefly in the wake of the front on Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to locally fresh ne winds are expected across and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo late each night through sunrise each morning for the next several days. The cyclonic circulation associated with a broad area of low pressure developing in the sw Caribbean may result in s strong ne flow across through the Gulf of Papagayo early next week. Light to gentle nw to n winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft are expected elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which is meandering e to w along about 09N, while moderate to fresh sw flow is expected s of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft primarily in long-period sw swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extending from 32N129W to 28N140W will continue se and gradually lose identity by Thu night as another cold front enters the far nw waters followed by fresh n to ne winds. The pressure gradient between high pressure in the wake of these fronts, and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, is maintaining a small area of fresh to strong trades from 14N to 22N w of 135W, with the area forecast to shrink over the next few days. NW swell continues to propagate se with seas of 7 to 11 ft w of a line from 32N125W to 16N132W to 11N40W will continue to spread se reaching a line from 20N115W to 13N140W on Thu before beginning to subside. $$ Nelson