000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 15 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: near gale force northerly flow
will increase to minimal gale force winds late this afternoon
with seas building to about 14 ft downstream of the gulf waters
near 14.5N95W overnight. The minimal gale conditions are
expected to continue through maximum drainage around sunrise
Wed, the develop again late Wed afternoon and evening. Winds
should gradually diminish throughout Thu and Thu night with
winds 20 kt or less on Fri, then increasing again to 20 to 25 kt
of Fri evening. Another cold front will enter the nw Gulf of
Mexico on Fri night resulting in gale conditions developing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec around sunrise Sat. Strong gale winds of
40 to 45 kt expected late Sat night.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough forms over the Gulf of Panama near 09N78W and
extends w to 08N94W, then turns slightly w-nw 10N110W to 11N122W
where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms and continues
nw through an embedded 1011 mb surface low at 13.5N132W, with
the ITCZ then turning sw to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed over and to the s of the
monsoon trough within 120 nm either side of a line from 06N78W
to 09N85W. Similar convection is noted in small clusters within
60 nm of 14N97W and 16N114W, and along the far western portion
of the monsoon trough within 90 nm either side of a line from
13N134W to 11N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features for a gale warning in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The remnant circulation of former tropical cyclone
Tina is centered near 19N111W and is estimated at 1012 mb. Fresh
n to nw winds and combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed within
210 nm nw of the center. This circulation will continue to spin
down as it drifts westward over the next couple of days. 

Gentle to moderate northerly winds with combined seas in the 5-7
ft range prevail over the open Pacific waters off the coast of
Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of
California. High pressure is building north of the area and will
tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and
Baja California Norte by beginning tonight with fresh nw winds
expected early Wed and strong to near gale nw winds Wed night.
The associated nw swell will build seas to 11 to 15 ft n of 28N
early Thu. Then the gradient will quickly relax throughout Thu
with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. Combined seas of 7 to
10 ft will spread s across the waters w of the Baja Peninsula
through Fri night before beginning to subside.

Light to gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of California
will become light s to sw winds across the waters n of 29n late
tonight, then gradually increase to 15 to 20 kt along 30N late
Wed and 20 to 25 kt late Wed night ahead of a cold front with
strong n winds following the front on Thu morning.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh ne winds are expected across
and just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo late each night
through sunrise each morning. 

Light to gentle nw to n winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft are
expected elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which is meandering e
to w along about 09N, while moderate to fresh sw flow is
expected s of the monsoon trough with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft
primarily in long-period sw swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front extending from 32N130W to 27N140W will continue se
and gradually lose identity along 25N on Thu night as another
cold front enters the far nw waters also accompanied by fresh n
to ne winds. The pressure gradient between high pressure in the
wake of these fronts, and lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ, is maintaining a small area of strong trades from 14N to
23N w of 133W, with the area forecast to shrink over the next
few days. NW swell continues to propagate se with seas of 7 to
11 ft w of a line from 32N130W to 14N125W. These seas will
continue to spread se reaching a line from 20N115W to 13N140W on
Thu before beginning to subside.
      
$$
Nelson