000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1439 UTC Tue Nov 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between building high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern north Pacific will increase winds to minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will then remain above gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night. Winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico will veer Wed night as the area of high pressure shifts eastward into the southeast United States. This will decrease winds flowing through the Chivela pass and bring an end to this extended period of gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday. Looking ahead to Friday night, another cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to lead to yet another gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec next Friday night into the weekend. This gale force gap wind event looks to be stronger than the current event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 11N122W. The itcz extends from 11N122W to low pressure near 13N121W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the ITCZ west of 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. The remnant circulation of Tina is centered near 19N 110.5W. This circulation will continue to spin down as it drifts westward over the next couple of days. Outside the influence of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail over the open Pacific waters off the coast of Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California. High pressure building north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja California Norte by midweek. This will strengthen winds to 25 kt off the coast of Baja California Norte Wednesday night, with winds reaching gale force off the coast of California. The gale force winds will help generate another northwesterly swell which will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte by early Thursday. Seas will peak near 14 ft early Thursday before starting to subside. By the weekend, combined seas associated with this swell will subside below 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. A surge in southwest monsoon flow aided by developing low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will freshen winds over the southern waters on Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure continues to build north of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is helping support fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 125W. A fresh set of NW swell is propagating into the NW waters. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 11 ft late Today into Wednesday over the far northwest waters. The area of high pressure will weaken toward weeks end which will help diminish trades over the western waters. The weakening high pressure will enable a cold front to move into the NW waters Friday. This front will usher in yet another set of large NW swells into the area with seas peaking near 15 ft over the far NW waters Friday night. $$ AL