000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151105 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1105 UTC Tue Nov 15 2016

updated to include convection with remnant low under Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The persistent high pressure ridge extending from northwest to
southeast along the Sierra Oriental Madre Oriental mountains of
Mexico has weakened slightly during the overnight hours allowing
for the persistent northerly gale force winds to diminish to
just below gale force as indicated in an Ascat pass from last
night. However, this respite will be short-lived as stronger
high pressure forecast to build southeast across the Gulf of
Mexico, and over central and eastern Mexico later this morning
and into tonight will once again induce a tightening of the
pressure gradient associated with the aforementioned ridge
across eastern Mexico. This will send another surge of north to
northeast gale force winds through the Chivela pass, and over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec to within 30 nm of a line from 16N95W to
14.5N95W later this morning. This next round of gale force winds
is expected to last until late Wednesday night before
diminishing to just below gale force by early on Thursday. Max
seas with this next event are forecast to build up to 14 ft in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with the leading the edge of 8 ft seas
reaching downstream from the Gulf to near 08N98W Wednesday night.
The seas related to this event then subside to 8 ft on Thursday
as the high pressure shifts eastward over the Gulf of Mexico
relaxing the culprit pressure gradient. Looking ahead to Friday
night, another cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of
Mexico which may lead to yet another gale force gap wind event
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec next Friday night into the weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 09N100W
to 10N108W. It resumes from 12N114W to low pressure near 12N124W
1011 mb to 11N135W where scatterometer data indicates it then
transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection exits 120 nm south of the trough
axis between 80W and 84W, and within 60 nm south of the axis 
between 101W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm south of the axis between 131W and 135W, and also south
of the ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 09N135W to 08N140W.
 
...DISCUSSION...updated

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features section above for details on the
near future Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event.

The remnant low of former tropical storm Tina is centered near
19N110W with pressure of 1011 mb moving west 6 kt. Latest
satellite imagery shows an expose low-level cloud swirl
depicting the low. The imagery also shows that new deep
convection of the scattered moderate isolated type has recently
formed between 60 nm to 120 nm of the low in the north quadrant
with scattered moderate convection to the northeast of the low
within 15 nm either side of a line from 21N107W to 21N108.5W.
The strong winds associated with the low continue to decrease in
coverage with strong winds of 20 to 25 kt presently confined to
within 60 nm of the low in the northwest quadrant with resultant
seas of 8 to 9 ft. The low is forecast to continue on a westward
motion reaching near 19N111W by early early this afternoon with
winds of 15 to 20 kt, and seas of 8 ft in northwest within its
vicinity. As the low continues to encounter very hostile
atmospheric conditions into tonight it will weaken further, and
eventually open to a trough late tonight on Wednesday.

Otherwise, northwest swell propagating through the open Pacific
waters off the western coast of Baja California will continue to
decay through this afternoon with seas lowering to below 8 ft by
this evening. Models in very good agreement that stronger high
pressure builds north of the discussion area today through
Thursday. The high pressure will interact with low pressure over
the western U.S. This will cause the pressure gradient to
significantly tighten off the coast of California and Baja
California Norte. Strong northwest winds will seep southeastward
into the far northeast corner of the area off the coast of Baja
California Norte Wednesday night, with winds reaching gale force
off the coast of California. The gale force winds will help
generate another northwesterly swell which will propagate into
the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte by early
Thursday. Seas will peak near 14 ft early Thursday before
subsiding thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected over the Gulf of
Papagayo during the next several days, with seas building to 5-6
ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to
moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. A surge in southwest
monsoon flow aided by developing low pressure over the
southwestern Caribbean will freshen winds over the southern
waters on Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A decaying northwest swell continues to propagate through the
region with related seas now having subsided to 6-8 ft. These
seas will subside further to 5 to 6 ft by early on Wednesday.
The exception is found to the west of a line from 32N133W to
21N135W to 15N135W to 13N140W where a new set of northwest swell
has brought seas of 8 to 10 ft there. This set of swell will
also propagate southeastward through Thursday with seas peaking
to around 11 or 12 ft. The leading edge of this new set of swell
will reach from near just offshore Baja California Sur to near
15N and west of 120W on Thursday. 

High pressure pressure over the northwest and north central
waters is interacting with lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ, and with a weak low pressure of 1011 mb embedded in the
monsoon trough near 13N129W. This interaction is bringing
northeast to east winds from 18N to 23N west of 130W with seas
of 8 to 9 ft. Stronger high pressure, as mentioned earlier, will
build north of the area today through Thursday, and again
interact with lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough to maitain these strong northeast to east winds.
The 8 to 9 ft seas associated with them are forecast to build to
12 ft late tonight, and slowly subside Wednesday into Thursday.

$$
AGUIRRE