000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1002 UTC Mon Nov 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently formed tropical storm Tina is centered near 16.7N 107.4W AT 14/0900 UTC, which is about 220 NM west of Manzanillo, Mexico or 270 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt gusts to 45 kt. Deep convection earlier noted to its east along the coast of Mexico has diminished during the past few hours, however a large cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection has fired up between 60 nm and 150 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm of a line from 14N105W to 16N105W to 17N105W. This late-season tropical storm is under strong south to southwest vertical shear that is forecast to increase today. This will cause the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression near 18.8N 108.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and to a remnant low by late tonight. Tina is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over portions of Colima and western Jalisco in Mexico today. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. A very tight and persistent pressure gradient extends north to south along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico. Low pressure is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressures are south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. With this synoptic on place, north to northeast winds of minimal gale force continue to surge out across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Therefore, a gale warning continues to be in effect. A reinforcing cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will help increase flow through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tuesday and Wednesday maintaining the gale force winds. with the areal coverage of these winds expected to increase some. Resultant seas are forecast to building up to 12 or 13 ft in association with the aforementioned gale force winds. The leading edge of the 8 ft seas will press southward from the Gulf and reach to near 08N97W by late on Wednesday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia southwest across the Gulf of Panama near 09N79W to 09N88W to 08N95W to 10N101W. It resumes from 10N118W to low pressure near 13N126W 1008 mb to 10N131W where scatterometer data from late last night indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ axis to beyond 08N140W. Only scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the axis between 83W and 84W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, see Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Tina and on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A tropical storm warning is in effect for forecast zone PMZ023 for this morning. Other than tropical storm Tina, the main story continues to be the northwest swell train that is propagating through the coastal waters offshore of Baja California with seas in the 8-10 ft range. This swell will slowly subside over the next couple of days, with seas subsiding to 8 to 9 ft over these waters by late tonight. Strong high pressure forecast to build north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja California Norte by midweek. This will strengthen winds to 25 kt off the coast of Baja California Norte Wednesday night, with winds reaching gale force off the coast of California. This event will send a new set of northwest swell through the far northeast waters and northern portion of zone PMZ011 beginning on Wednesday. Seas are expected to build to around 10 ft with this next round of large swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. A surge in southwest monsoon flow aided by developing low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will freshen winds over the southern waters east of about 90W beginning late Tuesday night into Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell associated with a previous cold front that moved across the northwest waters a few days ago continues to propagate through the region with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 06 and west of 110W. This swell event will continue to spread southeastward while subsiding through the beginning of the week. Seas associated to the swell will subside below 8 ft by Tuesday. A fresh set of northwesterly swell will move into the northwestern waters Tuesday with seas peaking near 11 ft late Tuesday into Wednesday over the far northwest waters. The pressure gradient will tighten between lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and developing high pressure north of the area. This will bring an increase in the trade wind flow over the far western waters beginning this evening with seas forecast to build up 11 ft from 17N to 22N west of 134W by late Wednesday. $$ AGUIRRE