000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140321 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have increased closer to the center of the low pressure previously located near 18N107W. In addition, satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of the low pressure system has become much better defined and is producing winds to tropical storm force on the east side of the center. Based on this, the low pressure is upgraded to tropical storm Tina. At 14/0300 UTC, Tina is center near 18.5N 107.2W or about 160 NM...300 KM W of Manzanillo, Mexico moving toward the N or 350 degrees at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt gusts to 45 kt. This late-season tropical storm is forecast to weaken on Monday and become a remnant low on Tuesday due to the presence of strong upper-level winds. Tina is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Colima and western Jalisco in Mexico through Monday. A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wind will remain near gale force or at minimal gale force through early this week. A reinforcing cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will help increase flow through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tuesday and Wednesday maintaining the gale force winds. Expect building seas up to 12 ft in and downstream of this Gulf. Winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico will veer as the area of high pressure shifts eastward into the southeast United States toward the end of the week. This will decrease winds flowing through the Chivela pass and bring an end to this extended period of gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama near 08N79W to 09N87W to 08N95W to 10N101W. It resumes from 10N118W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N126W to 10N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, see Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Tina and on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A tropical storm warning is in effect for forecast zone PMZ023 tonight. Northwesterly swell is propagating through the coastal waters offshore of Baja California with seas in the 8-10 ft range. This swell will slowly subside over the next couple of days, with seas falling below 8 ft over these waters by late Monday night. Building high pressure north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja California Norte by midweek. This will strengthen winds to 25 kt off the coast of Baja California Norte Wednesday night, with winds reaching gale force off the coast of California. The gale force winds will help generate another northwesterly swell which will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte by early Thursday. Seas will peak near 14 ft early Thursday before starting to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15-20 kt are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. A surge in southwest monsoon flow aided by developing low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will freshen winds over the southern waters early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The cold front over the northwest waters has dissipated. NW swell associated to this front continues to propagate through the region with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 10N and west of 110W. This swell event will continue to spread southeastward while subsiding through the beginning of the week. Seas associated to the swell will subside below 8 ft by Tuesday. A fresh set of northwesterly swell will move into the northwestern waters Tuesday with seas peaking near 11 ft late Tuesday into Wednesday over the far northwest waters. The pressure gradient will tighten between lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and developing high pressure north of the area. This will bring an increase in the trade wind flow over the far western waters north of the ITCZ in about 24 hours. $$ GR