000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131055 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1055 UTC Sun Nov 13 2016 Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A resilient tight pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico from a squeeze play between a high center 1026 mb over eastern Mexico and low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico continues to induce minimal gale force winds through the isthmus of Tehuantepec, and out over the Gulf to within 30 nm of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W to 14N95.5W with seas of 9 to 12 ft. These winds will diminish to 20 to 30 kt by early this afternoon. Another surge of minimal gale force winds is expected tonight, and again on Monday night with a more pronounced event likely starting on Tuesday as the present high pressure in place is reinforced by a stronger area of high pressure that pushes southward over Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front well into mid-week. The longer duration of these winds will keep combined max seas to around 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia near 09N75W to 09N80W to 08N84W to 08N92W to 09N98W to 12N105W. It resumes from 13N112W to 12N120W to low pressure near 13N125W 1010 mb to 10N128W to 09N133W where scatterometer data indicates that ITCZ axis then extends from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north and 60 nm south of the trough between 95W and 100W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ west of 136W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 87W and 89W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 127W and 131W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ west of 134W. Similar activity is noted well south of the trough within 30 nm of a line from the coast of Colombia near 04N77W to 04N81W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Weak low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 17N108W. The low remains under very hostile upper level conditions with strong southwest winds aloft keeping deep convection removed to the east of the weak low. This convection consists of the scattered moderate to strong type intensity from 16N to 20N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 30 nm of 13N108W, and also within 16N104.5W. This deep convection is approaching the coast of Mexico, while scattered moderate to isolated strong type convection has already moved inland the coast of Mexico between from 103W to Cabo Corrientes. Areas of locally heavy rainfall will affect portions of southwestern and central Mexico through Monday. Winds in the range of 20 to 30 kt with seas of 9 to 12 ft are associated with an induced tight gradient associated with the convection. The low is forecast to weaken further tonight through late Monday as it tracks back to the west, eventually opening to a trough near 112W by late on Tuesday. A fresh set of northwest swell is moving into the waters off the coast of Baja California with seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte. This set of swell will propagate southeastward through the offshore waters of Baja California through Monday evening while decaying. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the region. Winds are forecast to increase to a fresh breeze across forecast zone PMZ115 beginning on Monday with seas building to around 7 ft. This increase of winds will likely be attributed to the gradient induced by a developing broad area of low pressure over the SW Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends over the northwest portion of the area from near 32N127W TO 24N140W. The front will dissipate by early this afternoon. large northwest swell are following in behind the front with combined seas maxing out to 12 ft. Ahead of the front, combined seas to 11 ft exist to the northwest of a line from 32N115W to 18N121W to 12N126W to 05N140W. The swell will continue to propagate southeastward across the area as it slowly subsides. Another set of long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW corner on Tuesday with the arrival of another cold front. Strong high pressure north of the area in the wake of this next cold front is forecast to extend a ridge into the northwest and central waters on Tuesday. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient across the west-central waters. As a result, expect increasing trade winds and building seas from 13N to 22N W of 130W early on Tuesday. $$ AGUIRRE