000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130331
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The
pressure gradient between a ridge extending North-South over
eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough will
continue to support minimal gale force winds across the Tehuantepec
area, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours
through Monday night. These winds will diminish to 20-30 kt during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Expect seas of 8-12 ft in
association with this gap wind event. Marine guidance suggests
that a more pronounced and longer lived gale event will occur
Tuesday and Wednesday in response to stronger high pressure
ridging that builds across the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico in the
wake of a cold front.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 1007 low
pressure near 16N108W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N124W to
08N133W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N133W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of trough, and
within 150 nm S of trough 116W and 121W. Similar convection is
from 07N to 10N W of 135W. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is NE of low center located near 16N108W, and covers
from 16N to 20N between 104W and 106.5W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 16N between
104W and 110W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features section above for more on the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. 

Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 16N108W. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated and better
organized since yesterday in association with this system.
However, the circulation of the low is not well defined and most
of the active convection continues to move away from the center
due to the presence of strong upper-level winds. These upper-
level winds are expected to become stronger by tonight and
Sunday, making the potential for tropical cyclone formation
unlikely. Regardless, locally heavy rainfall associated with this
system could occur over portions of southwestern and central
Mexico during the next day or two. Currently, convection and winds
in the 20-30 kt range are affecting the offshore waters off the
coast of the southwest Mexico states from Guerrero to Jalisco.
Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over this area in a combination of
locally generated wind waves mixing with a previously existing
northwesterly swell. 

A fresh set of northwesterly swell is moving into the waters off
the coast of Baja California. Seas are expected to build to near
10 ft over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte tonight.
Seas of 8-10 ft will affect the offshore waters of Baja California
on Sunday. High pressure building north of the area will tighten
the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja
California Norte. Winds will increase off the coast of Baja
California Norte to near 25 kt by midweek next week with seas
building to near 14 ft in northwesterly swell by late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early
morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf
of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest
winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the
region. Winds are forecast to increase to a fresh breeze across
forecast zone PMZ115 Monday through Thursday with seas building to
8 ft. This will likely be associated with a developing broad area
of low pressure over the SW Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front extends over the northwest portion of the
area from near 30N128W TO 24N140W. The front will dissipate over
the next 24 hours. The main impact from this front is the arrival
of a fresh set of long period NW swell into the northwest waters.
Seas are currently in the 11-15 ft range over this area based on
latest altimeter passes. The swell will continue to propagate
southeast across the area as it slowly subsides. Another set of
long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW corner on
Tuesday.

High pressure building north of the area will also tighten the
pressure gradient across the west-central waters. As a result,
expect increasing trade winds and building seas from 14N to 22N W
of 130W early on Tuesday. These marine conditions are forecast to
persist on Wednesday.

$$
GR