000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2107 UTC Sat Nov 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will pulse to gale force the next couple of nights. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico early next week will help produce a stronger gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 1008 low pressure near 15.5N109W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 88W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11.5N between 116W and 121W, and from 08N to 10N W of 136W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is NE of low center near 15.5N109W, and covers from 16N to 19N between 105W and 107.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 102W and 108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 15.5N109W. Active convection and winds in the 20-30 kt range are affecting the offshore waters off the coast of the southwest Mexico states from Guerrero to Jalisco. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over this area in a combination of locally generated wind waves mixing with a previously existing northwesterly swell. Strong upper- level winds are expected to continue affecting the low during the next day or two while the system moves slowly north- northeastward. Even though tropical cyclone development is unlikely, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of southwestern and central Mexico during the next couple of days. A fresh set of northwesterly swell is moving into the waters off the coast of Baja California. Seas are expected to build to near 10 ft over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte tonight. Seas of 8-10 ft will affect the offshore waters of Baja California on Sunday. High pressure building north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of California and Baja California Norte. Winds will increase off the coast of Baja California Norte to near 25 kt by midweek next week with seas building to near 14 ft in northwesterly swell by late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Outside the area of low pressure and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail over the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends over the northwest portion of the area from near 30N128W TO 23N140W. The front will dissipate over the next 24 hours. The main impact from this front is the arrival of a fresh set of long period northwesterly swell into the northwest waters. Seas are currently in the 12-15 ft range over this area based on a pair of altimeter passes. The swell will continue to propagate southeast across the area as it slowly subsides. $$ GR