000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1510 UTC Sat Nov 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting minimal
gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will pulse to
gale force the next couple of nights. A cold front moving across
the Gulf of Mexico early next week will help produce a stronger
gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N96W to low pressure
near 14.5N110W to 12N122W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 84W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 60 nm south and 90 nm north of the
monsoon trough between 96W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 180 nm east of low pressure
center. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm
either side of the monsoon trough between 114W and 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features section above for more on the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. 

Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 14.5N110W. Active
convection and winds in the 20-25 kt range are affecting the
offshore waters off the coast of the southwest Mexico states of
Guerrero and Michoacan. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over this
area. Outside this area and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to
moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail over the open
waters off the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and seas
of 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California. The low
pressure center will drift north-northeastward over the next 24
hours. Winds may increase to 30 kt late tonight and early Sunday
morning off the coast of southwest Mexico. The low will weaken and
dissipate early next week as it shifts westward. A fresh set of
northwesterly swell will move into the waters off the coast of
Baja California later today with seas building to near 10 ft over
the coastal waters off Baja California Norte. High pressure
building north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient off
the coast of California and Baja California Norte. Winds will
increase off the coast of Baja California Norte to near 25 kt by
midweek next week with seas building to near 14 ft in
northwesterly swell by late Wednesday night into early Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early
morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf
of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest
winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the
region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends over the northwest portion of the area
from near 30N129W to 23N140W. The front is will dissipate over the
next 24-36 hours. The main impact from this front is the arrival
of a fresh set of long period northwesterly swell into the
northwest waters. Seas are currently in the 12-14 ft range over
this area. The swell will continue to propagate southeast across
the area as it slowly subsides. Low pressure mentioned above has
seas in the 8-12 ft range in its vicinity in a combination of
locally generated wind waves mixing with a previously existing
northwesterly swell. The low will dissipate by early next week
with residual trough shifting westward over the waters east of
120W before dissipating by midweek next week. 

$$
AL