000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112157
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and low pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern North
Pacific will support minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight into Saturday morning, and Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Then, fresh to strong northerly winds, in the
25-30 kt range, will continue to surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Monday. A reinforcing cold front will shift across the
Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will result in a stronger
gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next
week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 07N94W to 1009 mb low pres near 14.5N109.5W to 1014 mb low
pressure near 13N123W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong N of 05N E of 84W, including the Gulf of Panama.
Similar convection is from 11N to 16N between 102W and 106W, and
from 10N to 12N between 106W and 114W. Scattered moderate from 08N
to 10N between 122W and 127W, and within 120 nm S of trough W of
135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features section above for more on the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. 

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of long period NW swell
continues to propagate through the waters west of Baja California
producing seas in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere seas are in the
5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Seas over the Gulf
of California are in the 1-2 ft range, except the far northern
waters where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Seas will briefly
subside below 8 ft over much of the waters W of Baja California by
Saturday before a fresh set of large northwesterly swell propagates
into the area. Seas associated to this swell event will reach
8-10 ft over the open waters off the coast of Baja California
Sunday into early next week before subsiding below 8 ft by
Tuesday. Low pressure moving into the waters off southwest Mexico
is forecast to increase winds and seas across the offshore waters
S of 20N this weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of
Papagayo. Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night
and early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream
of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate
mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will
prevail across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is over the NW waters and extends from 30N134W to 
25N140W. The front is forecast to move SE reaching from 30N129W
to 25N140W by early Saturday afternoon while dissipating. Ahead of
the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 25N134W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate trade
winds north of the monsoon trough to 17N as depicted in the latest
ASCAT passes. This high pressure is forecast to dissipate in
about 24 hours. Then, high pressure in the wake of the front will
take control of the weather pattern across the north waters. 

Low pressure centered near 14.5N109.5W is embedded within the
monsoon trough. This system continues to pro