000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111504 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1332 UTC Fri Nov 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and low pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wind will diminish below gale force today before pulsing once again to gale force during the overnight hours tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will then diminish below gale force Saturday afternoon and remain just below gale force through the remainder of the weekend. A reinforcing cold front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will result in a stronger gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N93W to 10N100W to low pressure near 14.5N111W 1010 mb to 14N118W to 10N123W TO 10N131W. The ITCZ continues from 10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 18N between 101W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of long period northwesterly swell propagating through the waters west of 105W is producing seas in the 8-11 ft range with the highest seas over the coastal waters off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Seas over the Gulf of California are in the 1-2 ft range, except the far northern waters where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Seas will briefly subside below 8 ft over much of the open Pacific waters off Mexico by Saturday before a fresh set of large northwesterly swell propagates into the area. Seas associated to this swell will reach 8-10 ft over the open waters off the coast of Baja California Sunday into early next week before subsiding below 8 ft by Tuesday. Low pressure moving into the waters off southwest Mexico will increase winds to fresh to locally strong over this area this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will peak near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 26N132W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough to 17N as depicted in the latest ASCAT passes. Low pressure centered near 14.5N111W is embedded within the monsoon trough. Strong upper level winds has inhibited development of this low any further. These upper level winds are expected to remain strong and development of this low pressure area is not anticipated. The main story over these waters is the long period northwest swell which is propagating across much of the area. The swell continues to spread southeastward while subsiding. Based on the latest available observational data, seas associated with this swell have subsided to 11 ft. A cold front has moved into the northwest waters. This cold front has ushered in a fresh set of northwesterly swell into the area. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 15 ft later today. The cold front will continue to shift eastward while weakening over the next 24-48 hours. The front is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning, while the associated swell will continue to propagate southeastward while subsiding through the middle of next week. $$ AL