000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111013 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1012 UTC Fri Nov 11 2016 corrected header Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds will continue to surge through the isthmus of Tehuantepec to within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 14.5N95.5W as the culprit tight pressure gradient remains over much of Mexico, while at the same time a north to south stationary front is over the SW Gulf of Mexico as analyzed in the 06Z surface analysis. These winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale force later this morning to the range of 20 to 30 kt, then increase back up to minimal gale force tonight for a brief period lasting about 6 hours before diminishing to just below gale force late Saturday morning. The gradient will tighten slightly on Sunday night as the high pressure ridge over eastern Mexico presses southeastward with north to south oriented troughing present in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Northerly minimal gale force winds are forecast to once again surge into Gulf of Tehuantepec at that time and overnight Sunday night with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 to 30 kt during Monday morning as the ridge over Mexico weakens some. Seas are forecast to build to 11 ft in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching near 99W Saturday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to low pressure near 07N93W 1010 mb to 10N100W to low pressure near 14N111W 1010 mb to 13N116W to low pressure near 13N123W 1012 mb to 10N131W. The ITCZ axis continues from 10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm south of the trough between 101W and 106W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 121W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis west of 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. NWP model guidance suggests another gale force gap wind event will impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the Gulf of Mexico and far eastern Mexico followed by a large area of high pressure. A set of long period northwest swell is propagating through the waters just west of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Resultant seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range as was observed in an overnight altimeter pass. This swell train will gradually dissipate through tonight, with seas lowering to 8 ft. A second set of northwest swell will reach the waters off Baja California Norte early Saturday afternoon. This will build combined seas into the 8 to 10 ft range over the open Mexican offshore waters through early on Monday before it begins to also dissipate west-southwest of Baja California Sur Monday afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of Papagayo...peaking near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail across the region through the end of the week in mixed northwest and southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 29N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds north of the monsoon trough to 18N as depicted in the latest ASCAT passes. Three low pressure systems are noted within the monsoon trough as previously mentioned. The low pressure located near 14N111W is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms with the assistance of upper-level disturbances riding northeastward along the southeast periphery of a longwave trough that extends from a large upper low over far southern New Mexico southwest to 22N118W to near 15N128W. Strong upper-level winds associated with the trough are currently affecting the low pressure system. Model guidance indicates that these winds will increase further during the next few days, and not allow for significant development of the low as it moves generally northward at 5 to 10 kt. The main story over these waters is the long period northwest swell which is propagating across much of the area, with wave heights as high as 15 ft based on altimeter data from last night present to northwest of a cold front that stretches from 32N137W to 27N140W. Seas greater than 8 ft associated to this event are found over much of the waters west of 110W. The cold front is forecast to weaken as it reaches from near 32N129W to 25N136W, and become stationary to 23N140W by Saturday morning, and begin to dissipate as it reaches from near 32N127W to 23N140W by late Saturday night. The northwest swell will slowly decay through late Sunday night, with combined seas forecast to max out to around 11 ft at that time north of about 22N and between 120W and 132W. $$ AGUIRRE