000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101510
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1311 UTC Thu Nov 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern
North Pacific is supporting gale force winds over the Gulf of
Tehunatepec. These winds will diminish slightly below gale force
Friday, then pulse again to gale force during the overnight hours
Friday night. Wind will then pulse to near gale force during the
overnight hours through the weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N92W to low pressure
near 11.5N108.5W to 14N121W to 10N120W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 nm north
of the monsoon trough between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 106W and 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See above for more information on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale force gap wind event. A set of long period northwest swell
is propagating through the offshore waters off the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. A
second set of northwest swell will reach the waters off Baja
California Norte early this weekend, reinforcing the previous
swell. This will maintain seas in the 8 to 10 ft range over the
open Mexican offshore waters through early next week. Elsewhere
seas will remain below 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse the next several days over the Gulf of
Papagayo...peaking near 15 to 20 kt during the late night and
early morning hours, with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of
the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
prevail over the waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate
mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will
prevail across the region through the end of the week in mixed
northwest and southwest swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N129W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate trade winds
north of the monsoon trough to 20N as depicted in the latest ASCAT
pass. 

The main story over these waters is the long period northwest
swell which is propagating though the waters, with wave heights
as high as 14 ft. Seas greater than 8 ft associated to this event
are found over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 120W.
The swell will continue to spread southeast over the next couple
of days while slowly subsiding. A second set of large
northwesterly swell will propagate into the northwest waters
tonight. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 14 ft over
the far northwest waters late Friday. 

$$ 
AL