000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100855
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 UTC Thu Nov 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High
pressure north of the area will maintain strong to to minimal
gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec area through
late tonight. These winds will diminish a little below gale force
Friday, then briefly pulse again to gale force Friday night. Fresh
to strong northerly winds, in the 20-30 kt range, will continue to
surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec thereafter through Monday. Seas
are forecast to build to 11 ft in and downstream of the Gulf with
seas of 8 ft reaching near 100W tonight and mixing with longer
period northwest swell.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N93W to 1009 mb low
near 11.5N108W to 09N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 12N127W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 10N to
17N between 102W and 110W, and within 60 nm either side of the
monsoon trough between 100W and 117W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northeast swell downstream of the ongoing gale event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is mixing with longer period northwest swell
persisting over the area. While this swell will subside below 8 ft
through late today, another set of long period northwest swell is
already moving along the coast of the Baja California peninsula,
and will impact most of the coast of Mexico outside of the Gulf of
California by tonight with 8 to 10 ft combined seas. Yet another
set of northwest swell will reach the waters off Baja California
Norte by Saturday, reiforcing previous swell and maintaining 8 to
10 ft combined seas in open Mexican offshore waters through early
next week.

In the northern Gulf of California...strong northwest winds will
pulse today and later tonight between strong high pressure north
of the area and a local trough. The brief duration and limited
fetch of the winds will keep seas below 5 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
during the overnight and early morning hours through the weekend,
with seas building to 5-6 ft downstream of the Gulf. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N,
with gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft will persist across the region through the end of the
week in mixed northwest and southwest swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate trade winds persist north of the monsoon trough to 20N
between high pressure centered near 28N134W and 1010 mb low
pressure centered near 16N121W. Another 1010 mb low pressure area
is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11.5N108W or about 500 nm
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is accompanied by a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong
upper-level winds currently affecting this low are expected to
increase during the next few days, and development, if any, should
be slow to occur while the low moves northwestward and then
northward at 5 to 10 kt.

Long period northwest swell, with significant wave heights as
high as 15 ft, will continue to propagate southeast across the
forecast waters over the next several days. Wave heights will
subside to 8 to 12 ft as the leading edge of this swell event,
with wave periods around 20 seconds, will reach from Los Cabos to
the Equator at 130W late tonight, and from near Acapulco to
Equator at 120W Friday night. Additional pulses of northwest swell
will reach the northwest corner of the forecast region early on
Friday as another cold front moves into the discussion area. These
sets of large, long period NW swell are associated with powerful
storm systems over the north central Pacific.

$$
CHRISTENSEN