000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds, in the 20-30 kt range, are forecast to surge into the Tehuantepec area over the next several days as a ridge builds and persists across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to further increase to minimal gale force, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, tonight and Thursday night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 ft in and downstream of the Gulf. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 1009 mb low near 11N107W to 10N113W, resuming near 1011 mb low near 14N120W to 10N135W. ITCZ extends from 10N135W to 08N140W. Scattered strong convection, associated with the 1009 mb low near 11N107W, is from 09N-11N between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N between 107W-112W, from 08N-11N between 127W-130W, and from 12N-14N between 127W-140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of trough from 101W-104W and from 12N- 18N between 100W-113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. For the Gulf of California...moderate to fresh winds are noted across the northern Gulf of California based on scatterometer data, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. High pressure building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountains will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf this evening through late Thursday. Elsewhere....long period northwest swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft lingers is west of 115W this morning. A reinforcing round of seas is pushing in and will spread seas of 8 to 12 ft along the coast of the Baja peninsula, outside of the Gulf of California, through Thursday morning. Seas will subside to 8 to 10 ft Thursday morning through Friday and further spread to 105W before decaying again. This swell will mix with the shorter period northeast swell emerging out of the Gulf of California by Friday, creating areas of confused seas downstream of the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, a third set of northwest swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte by Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with brief pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo each evening starting tonight. Gentle to moderate mainly southwest winds will prevail south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will persist across the region through the end of the week in mixed northwest and southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of 20N with a 1022 mb high near 33N130W. Strong southwest winds will occur Thursday evening north of 28N west of 135W ahead of another front that will slowly pass southeast of 32N140W Thursday night, before stalling Friday and becoming diffuse Saturday. There is a 1009 mb low embedded within the monsoon trough near 11n107W. This low pressure area will move little over the next several days and gradually weaken. Winds of 15 to 20 kt are possible within 120 nm of the low pressure center through mid week. Scattered showers a few thunderstorms are noted from 12N130W northeastward to central Mexico and beyond, related to jet dynamics aloft on the edge of a broad upper trough reaching from north central Mexico to 20N120W. The main marine issue continues to be repeated sets of large, long period northwest swell, generated by powerful storm systems over the north central Pacific. An earlier set of northwest swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft lingers over much of the area, and will be reinforced by another set of northwest swell with 12 to 16 ft waves covering the area northwest of a line from 30N122W to 14N140W. Maximum wave heights will subside to 8 to 12 ft as this set will sweep southeast through Thursday, with another set following through Sunday. $$ PAW