000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 UTC Wed Nov 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to
strong northerly winds, in the 20-30 kt range, are forecast to
surge into the Tehuantepec area over the next several days as a
ridge builds and persists across eastern Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to further increase to minimal
gale force, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, 
tonight and Thursday night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 ft
in and downstream of the Gulf.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough reaches from 09N95W to 07N91W to 1012 mb low
pressure near 10N105W then terminating near 09N113W. The monsoon
trough resumes near a 1013 mb low pressure centered near 14N120W,
and continuous to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the low pressure centered near
10N105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 45 nm north of the monsoon trough between 127W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see Special Features section for details.

For the Gulf of California...moderate to fresh winds are noted
across the northern Gulf of California based on scatterometer
data, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. High
pressure building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountains
will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern
Gulf this evening through late Thursday.

Elsewhere....long period northwest swell with wave heights in
excess of 8 ft lingers over the offshore waters west of 105W.
While this will decay below 8 ft through the next 24 hours,
another set of long period northwest swell will push into the
offshore waters off Baja California Norte this morning. This set
will bring a reinforcing round of seas in excess of 8 ft across
the region west of 100W, with the exception of the closed waters
of the Gulf of California. This swell will mix with the shorter
period northeast swell emerging out of the Gulf of California by
Friday, creating areas of confused seas downstream of the Gulf of
California. Looking ahead, a third set of northwest swell will
move into the waters off Baja California Norte by Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo during
the overnight and early morning hours through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters
north of 10N, with brief pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds
into the Gulf of Papagayo each evening starting tonight. Gentle to
moderate mainly southwest winds will prevail south of 10N. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft will persist across the region through the end of the
week in mixed northwest and southwest swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A frontal boundary reaching from 30N131W to 25N140W will become
diffuse later today. High pressure will build across the waters
north of 25N Thursday, ahead of another cold front approaching the
area. Strong southwest winds will occur north of 28N west of 135W
ahead of a second front that will slowly pass southeast of
32N140W Thursday evening, before stalling Friday and becoming
diffuse Saturday. 

Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are flaring
near a 1012 mb low pressure analyzed near 10N106W. This low
pressure area will move little over the next several days and
gradually weaken. Winds of 15 to 20 kt are possible within 120 nm
of the low pressure center through mid week. Scattered showers a
few thunderstorms are noted from 12N130W northeastward to central
Mexico and beyond, related to jet dynamics aloft on the edge of a
broad upper trough reaching from north central Mexico to 20N120W. 

The main marine issue continues to be repeated sets of large,
long period northwest swell, generated by powerful storm systems
over the north central Pacific. An earlier set of northwest swell
with wave heights in excess of 8 ft lingers over much of the
area, and will be reinforced by another set of northwest swell
with 12 to 21 ft waves covering the area northwest of a line from
30N125W to 16N140W. Maximum wave heights will subside to 12 to 14
ft as this set will sweep southeast through Thursday, with another
set following through Sunday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN