000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090322
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to
strong northerly winds, in the 20-30 kt range, are forecast to
surge into the Tehuantepec area over the next several days as a
ridge builds and persists across eastern Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to further increase to minimal
gale force, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, 
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Seas are forecast to build
to 11 ft in and downstream of the Gulf.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Due to the presence of mainly light winds, a surface trough is
analyzed on the 0000 UTC surface map from 09N84W to 06N95W to 1010
mb low pressure centered near 10N105W to 09N115W. The ITCZ axis
extends 12N122W to 10N130w to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection can be found from 12N to 17N between 110W to
120W, and from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see Special Features section for details.

For the Gulf of California...moderate to fresh winds are noted
across the northern Gulf of California based on scatterometer
data, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. High
pressure building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountains
will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern
Gulf Wednesday evening through late Thursday.

Elsewhere...another set of long period NW swell will reach the
waters W of Baja California on Wednesday. Seas of 8-12 ft will
dominate the offshore waters W of 112W by early Thursday morning.
This swell event will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by late
Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
during the overnight and early morning hours through the forecast
period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
waters north of 10N, with gentle to moderate mainly SW winds S of
10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will persist across the region through the
end of the week in mixed NW and SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening frontal boundary is over the NW waters and extends
from 30N131W TO 23N140W. Combined seas of 18-21 ft are noted
behind the front per the most recent altimeter pass. A 1020 mb
high pres is ahead of the front and extends a ridge to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and
lower press in the vicinity of the ITCZ axis is resulting in a
belt of moderate to fresh trade winds between the ITCZ and about
20N and W of 125W based on scatterometer data. A 1011 low pres
near 14N120W is also helping to slightly increase the winds across
this area.

Another small area of low pres is near 10N105W, and is producing
disorganized cloudiness and a few showers. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur before it moves into a region
of strong upper-level winds late this week. This low is expected
to move west-northwestward for the next day or two and then turn
northwestward.

Long period NW swell, with significant wave heights as high as 21
ft, will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over
the next several days. The leading edge of this swell event, with
wave periods between 20 to 21 seconds, will reach from Los Cabos
to the Equator at 135W by Wednesday night. Seas of 8-12 ft will
dominate the waters NW of a line from 23N110W to the Equator at
130W on Thursday. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach the NW
corner of the forecast region early on Friday as another cold
front moves into the discussion area.

$$
GR